Group 1: Report Summary - Strategy suggestion: The short-term price of the br2508 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 and 11,500 [7] - Market review: This week, the spot price of domestic butadiene rubber was weakly consolidating, with the Shandong market spot price fluctuating between 11,200 and 11,700 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of high-cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec and PetroChina sales companies were stable. As of July 3, 2025, the mainstream ex-factory price of high-cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 and 11,800 yuan/ton [8] - Market outlook: Affected by the weak raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, industry players are cautiously waiting and watching. Driven by the high inventory reduction of individual production enterprises, the overall inventory of domestic butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly this week. However, the shipment pressure of downstream enterprises remains high, and the inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are expected to increase slightly. In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased week-on-week this week. Some semi-steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises operated at reduced loads, significantly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises maintained stable production schedules, and individual enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 5 days, resulting in a slight decline in capacity utilization rate. Next week, as enterprise maintenance gradually ends and production resumes, it will drive up the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [8] Group 2: Futures Market - Price trend: This week, the price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed flat, with a weekly change of +0% [12] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Inter - month spread: As of July 4, the spread between the 8th and 9th contracts of butadiene rubber was 75 [19] - Warehouse receipts: As of July 4, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 700 tons, unchanged from last week [22] Group 3: Spot Market - Spot price: As of July 3, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Basis: As of July 3, the basis of butadiene rubber was 315 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from last week [27] Group 4: Upstream Market - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of July 3, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was reported at 577.38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 9.26 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was reported at 850 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - Butadiene capacity utilization and inventory: As of July 4, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, an increase of 1.2% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, a decrease of 5,120 tons from last week [33] Group 5: Industry Situation - Production and capacity utilization: In June 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous month. As of July 3, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 66.98%, an increase of 0.18% from last week [36] - Production profit: As of July 3, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 164 yuan/ton, an increase of 414 yuan/ton from last week [39] - Inventory: As of July 4, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,100 tons, a decrease of 870 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,350 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,800 tons, an increase of 430 tons from last week [42] Group 6: Downstream Market - Tire capacity utilization: As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points [45] - Tire export: In May 2025, China's tire export volume was 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, China's cumulative tire export volume was 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 289,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.23% and a year - on - year increase of 8.33%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 1.3353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.94%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 437,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.74% and a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 1.9275 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.85% [48]
合成橡胶市场周报-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-04 09:10