瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20250704

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the spot price of the domestic port methanol market mainly declined. The price in Jiangsu fluctuated between 2450 - 2840 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong between 2420 - 2470 yuan/ton. The inland methanol market first declined and then rose. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line fluctuated between 1980 - 2010 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying between 2205 - 2230 yuan/ton [7]. - Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production reduction exceeded the output of restored capacity, resulting in a slight decrease in overall production. In Northwest China, some olefin plants had unexpected recovery failures while the supporting methanol plants operated normally, leading to a rapid accumulation of enterprise inventories this week [7]. - This week, the methanol port inventory fluctuated slightly. In the Yangtze - River area of East China, the提货 volume from mainstream storage areas remained low. With more foreign vessels and domestic cargo supplements, inventory accumulation was obvious. In South China, the number of domestic vessels decreased month - on - month, the提货 volume from mainstream storage areas was stable, and the inventory decreased slightly [7]. - In terms of demand, Zhongmei Mengda and Yanchang Zhongmei Phase II continued to be under maintenance. This week, the operating rate of the domestic methanol - to - olefins industry decreased. The Sinopec Zhongyuan olefin plant is planned to shut down next week, and the operating rate will continue to decline [7]. - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The domestic port methanol spot price declined, and the inland market first declined and then rose [7]. - Market Outlook: Production decreased slightly, enterprise inventories in Northwest China accumulated rapidly, port inventory fluctuated slightly, and demand weakened [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2380 - 2450 in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou methanol futures fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 0.25% [9]. - As of July 4, the MA 9 - 1 spread was - 38 [14]. - As of July 4, the number of Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts was 8655, an increase of 638 compared with last week [21]. - Spot Market - As of July 4, the mainstream price in Taicang, East China was 2455 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia, Northwest China was 2005 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 370 yuan/ton compared with last week [27]. - As of July 3, the CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 283 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the main Chinese port was 62 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton compared with last week [33]. - As of July 4, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was 56 yuan/ton, a decrease of 371 yuan/ton compared with last week [38]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - Upstream - As of July 2, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [41]. - As of July 3, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.13 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [41]. - Industry - As of July 3, China's methanol production was 1,987,076 tons, a decrease of 71,020 tons compared with last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 88.18%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.45% [44]. - As of July 2, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 673,700 tons, an increase of 3,200 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 13,500 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 10,300 tons [49]. - As of July 2, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 352,300 tons, an increase of 10,700 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.14%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 241,300 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.23% [49]. - In May 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.2923 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64.06%; from January to May 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 3.3694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.43% [53]. - As of July 3, the methanol import profit was 6.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312.34 yuan/ton compared with last week [53]. - Downstream - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 85.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09%. The average weekly operating rate of the olefin industry continued to decline [56]. - As of July 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefins on - paper profit was - 919 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton compared with last week [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.