Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. Corn futures have been oscillating downward recently. Due to factors such as increased planting area in the US, good growth conditions, and domestic import auctions increasing supply, along with wheat's substitution advantage, the corn market is under pressure. Corn starch futures have also declined, affected by the drop in corn prices. Although the supply pressure of corn starch has weakened and the spot price is relatively stable, the demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [9][10][14]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Key Points Summary Corn - Strategy: Short - term trading [9] - Market Review: The main 2509 contract of corn futures closed at 2353 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous week [10] - Market Outlook: In 2025, the US corn planting area decreased slightly compared to the March estimate but increased by 5% compared to 2024. The US corn inventory in the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 7% year - on - year. The domestic import corn auction started on July 1, with significant premiums. On July 4, the auction volume increased to 306,000 tons. Wheat has a significant substitution advantage, and the feed demand for corn has decreased. The corn futures price has been oscillating downward from a high level [10] Corn Starch - Strategy: Short - term trading [13] - Market Review: The main 2509 contract of Dalian corn starch futures closed at 2717 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous week [14] - Market Outlook: Due to continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate is at a low level in recent years. The spot price of corn starch is relatively stable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has increased. Recently, it has been affected by the decline in corn prices [14] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 9 - month contract of corn futures oscillated downward, with a total position of 945,346 lots, a decrease of 28,424 lots from the previous week. The 9 - month contract of corn starch futures also oscillated downward, with a total position of 178,348 lots, an increase of 28,954 lots from the previous week [20] Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 35,964, and the net short position decreased compared to the previous week. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 11,107, and the net short position also decreased [27] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 204,318, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 22,643 [33] Spot Price and Basis - As of July 3, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2436.86 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 9 - month contract and the spot average price was + 84 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2850 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2940 yuan/ton. The basis between the 9 - month contract and the Jilin Changchun spot price was 133 yuan/ton [38][42] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of corn was 91 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period. The 9 - 1 spread of starch was 62 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period [48] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 9 - month contract of starch and corn was 364 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from the previous week [57] Substitute Spread - As of July 3, 2025, the spread between wheat and corn was 14.03 yuan/ton. In the 27th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 120 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton from the previous week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn Supply - Port Inventory: As of June 27, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 1.041 million tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons from the previous week; the foreign trade inventory was 300 tons, the same as the previous week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 2.724 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume was 252,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons week - on - week [52] - Monthly Import: In May 2025, the total import of ordinary corn was 190,000 tons, a decrease of 860,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a decrease of 81.9% [70] - Feed Enterprise Inventory: As of July 3, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 31.96 days, a decrease of 0.63 days from the previous week, a decrease of 1.93% week - on - week, and an increase of 1.62% year - on - year [74] Corn Demand - Livestock Inventory: As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 417.31 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. At the end of May, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million, an increase of 40,000 month - on - month and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [78] - Breeding Profit: As of June 27, 2025, the self - breeding and self - raising pig breeding profit was 50.25 yuan/head, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 131.71 yuan/head [82] - Processing Profit: As of July 3, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 49 yuan/ton. As of July 4, 2025, the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 540 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 384 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 111 yuan/ton [86] Corn Starch Supply - Enterprise Inventory: As of July 2, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 4.354 million tons, a decrease of 4.66% [90] - Operating Rate and Inventory: From June 26 to July 2, 2025, the national corn processing volume was 544,700 tons, a decrease of 1500 tons from the previous week; the national corn starch output was 264,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week; the weekly operating rate was 51.2%, an increase of 0.05% from the previous week. As of July 2, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.313 million tons, an increase of 4000 tons from the previous week, a weekly increase of 0.31%, a monthly increase of 0.31%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.83% [94] 4. Option Market Analysis As of July 4, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2509 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.13% from the previous week's 9.85%. This week, the implied volatility oscillated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [97]
玉米类市场周报：玉米现货相对坚挺，期货盘面继续回落-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-04 09:10