瑞达期货烧碱市场周报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the spot supply and demand of caustic soda in Shandong were weak, the market price of liquid caustic soda declined, the sentiment in the market improved, the price of the futures main contract rose, and the basis converged. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2,380 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from last week's close; the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, affected by the increase in maintenance devices this week, the capacity utilization rate in each region mainly decreased, and the national average utilization rate decreased by 2.0% to 80.5%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07% to 80.67%; this week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 3.4% to 75.17%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.13% to 60.18%. In terms of inventory, this week, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, which was at a moderately high level compared to the same period. This week, the chlor-alkali profit dropped to around 294 yuan/ton, which was at a neutral level compared to the same period. In July, the purchase prices of alumina plants in Shandong and other places were lowered, and the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - Looking ahead, the planned maintenance capacity in July will decrease. Affected by the restart of shut - down devices and the launch of new production capacity, there is an expectation of an increase in caustic soda supply, but the low price of liquid chlorine restricts the room for improvement in the operating rate. The alumina price is weak, the profit is meager, and the growth of the operating rate is lackluster. The previous high delivery volume of caustic soda plants to alumina enterprises has led to implicit inventory pressure, which restricts future demand. The demand in the non - aluminum off - season is weak, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase based on rigid demand. As the future supply increases, the spot price will still face some pressure against the backdrop of limited demand. In the futures market, the replenishment expectation before the non - aluminum peak season provides some support for the price of the 09 contract, but the rebound space is limited in the absence of positive fundamentals. Technically, the SH2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 2,300 and the resistance around 2,500 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Price: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased, while the futures price increased, and the basis converged. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,380 yuan/ton, up 2.63% from last week, and the converted 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to around 2,406 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased with the national average capacity utilization rate dropping to 80.5%. Demand from alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries weakened. Inventory decreased by 1.58% to 38.42 tons, and the chlor - alkali profit dropped to around 294 yuan/ton [8]. - Outlook: Supply is expected to increase, but the low price of liquid chlorine restricts the operating rate. Demand is weak, and the spot price will face pressure. The futures price has some support but limited rebound space [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The main caustic soda contract fluctuated and rose this week, and the position volume of the 09 contract decreased [9]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Shandong: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 780 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,438 yuan/ton. The price of 99% flake caustic soda was 3,150 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was - 300 yuan/ton [15][37]. - Henan: The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 864 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,700 yuan/ton [27]. - Inner Mongolia: The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 880 yuan/ton, with a converted 100% price of 2,750 yuan/ton [32]. - Basis: The spot price decreased while the futures price increased, leading to a convergence of the basis [22]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Raw salt: The prices of raw salt in the Northwest and Shandong remained stable [44]. - Steam coal: The price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal rose to 621 yuan/ton [49]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: In June, the caustic soda output was 3.4167 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56%. This week, the operating rate dropped to 80.5% [52]. - Demand: The alumina output in May was 7.6323 million tons, and the operating rate last week was 80.67%. This week, the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 75.17%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber remained stable [57][61][64]. - Import and export: In May, the caustic soda import was 0.05 tons, and the cumulative import from January to May was 0.33 tons. In May, the caustic soda export was 33.09 tons, and the cumulative export from January to May was 1.349 million tons [70][76]. - Inventory: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 38.42 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58% [81]. - Profit: The chlor - alkali profit in Shandong decreased and was at a neutral level compared to the same period [84]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was 15.27%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 23.27% [87].