Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market was influenced by macro - sentiment, with rubber prices fluctuating. Imported rubber market offer prices rose, but actual transaction prices weakened. Futures prices fluctuated higher with an unstable center. Domestic natural rubber spot prices adjusted slightly, and downstream demand was weak [7]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. In Yunnan, weather disturbances persist, and raw material acquisition is difficult with firm prices. In Hainan, the resumption of tapping is slow, and raw material supply is limited. Qingdao port's total spot inventory continues to increase significantly, with bonded warehouses slightly reducing inventory and general trade warehouses continuing to accumulate large amounts of inventory. Downstream enterprises are mainly digesting inventory [7]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Next week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [7]. - The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,900 - 14,500 in the short - term, and the nr2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market was driven by macro - sentiment, with rubber prices fluctuating. Imported rubber offer prices rose, but actual transaction prices weakened. Futures prices fluctuated higher, and domestic spot prices adjusted slightly. Downstream demand was weak [7]. - Market Outlook: Global natural rubber producing areas are gradually starting to tap. Yunnan has weather problems, and Hainan's tapping recovery is slow. Qingdao port's inventory is increasing. This week, tire enterprise capacity utilization decreased, and it will recover next week [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13,900 - 14,500, and the nr2508 contract between 12,000 - 12,500 in the short - term [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - Price Movement: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 0.28% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - rubber fell by 1.1% week - on - week [12]. - Spread: As of July 4, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 865, and the spread between August and September contracts of 20 - rubber was 10 [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of July 4, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 188,850 tons, a decrease of 3,110 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 29,736 tons, an increase of 2,118 tons from last week [25]. - Spot Market - Price and Basis: As of July 3, the price of state - owned whole latex was 14,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of 20 - rubber was 207 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton from last week, and the non - standard basis was - 115 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [31][36]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - Thailand: As of July 3, the price of field latex in Thailand was 54.5 (- 2.5) baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 48.55 (+ 1.4) baht/kg. As of July 4, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 6.6 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.8 dollars/ton from last week [40]. - Domestic: As of July 3, the price of Yunnan latex was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the price of Hainan fresh latex was 13,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [43]. - Import: In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 453,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.35% and a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.6623 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.25% [47]. - Inventory: As of June 29, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 632,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,800 tons, an increase of 2.40%. The bonded area inventory was 80,700 tons, a decrease of 0.62%, and the general trade inventory was 551,400 tons, an increase of 2.85% [51]. - Downstream - Tire Start - up Rate: As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.13%, a month - on - month decrease of 6.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.85 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.96 percentage points [54]. - Tire Exports: In May 2025, China's tire exports were 758,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to May, the cumulative tire exports were 3.4042 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - Domestic Demand: In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks were about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant information provided.
瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-04 09:22