棉花（纱）市场周报：需求淡季，缓慢去库存进程中-20250704

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15%, while the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52%. Internationally, weak US cotton weekly export sales and favorable weather for crop growth limited the rebound of US cotton. Domestically, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the overall operating rate. Cotton is in the process of destocking, but the destocking speed is slow due to the off - season, showing a slightly stronger overall oscillation. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang poses a risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Analysis: The main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52% [6]. - Market Outlook: Weak US cotton export sales, favorable weather for growth and a rise in the good - quality rate limited the rebound of US cotton. In China, the textile industry is in a consumption off - season, with poor new orders and a slow decline in the operating rate. Cotton is destocking slowly. The high - temperature weather in Xinjiang poses risks [6]. - Future Trading Tips: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - US Cotton Market: The price of the US cotton December contract fell by about 1.28% this week. As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial long - position of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 5.61% month - on - month, the non - commercial short - position decreased by 1.86% month - on - month, and the CFTC net position increased by 14.91% month - on - month [9]. - Foreign Cotton Spot Market: For the week ending June 26, US current - market - year cotton export sales increased by 23,700 bales, a 13% decrease from the previous week and a 66% decrease from the four - week average. Next - market - year export sales increased by 106,600 bales. US cotton export shipments were 255,800 bales, a 39% increase from the previous week and a 9% increase from the four - week average. As of July 1, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.9 cents per pound, a 1.56% decrease month - on - month [14]. - Futures Market: The main Zhengzhou cotton 2509 contract rose by about 0.15% this week, and the cotton yarn futures 2509 contract fell by 0.52%. As of this week, the top - 20 net position of cotton futures was - 27,247, and that of cotton yarn futures was - 113. The cotton futures warehouse receipt was 10,067, and the cotton yarn futures warehouse receipt was 2 [17][24][30]. - Spot Market: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,200 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20,420 yuan per ton. As of July 3, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (rotor yarn) was 14,560 yuan per ton [35][45]. - Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost: As of July 2, 2025, the imported cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,667 yuan per ton, a 0.15% decrease month - on - month; the sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was 14,400 yuan per ton, a 0.06% decrease month - on - month. As of June 25, 2025, the imported cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was 20,997 yuan per ton, a 0.10% increase month - on - month [51]. - Imported Cotton Cost - Profit: As of July 2, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 763 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,496 yuan per ton [55]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory: As of May, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 3.4587 million tons, a 16.71% decrease month - on - month and an 8.36% decrease year - on - year. As of the end of May, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 941,100 tons, a 13,100 - ton decrease month - on - month [59]. - Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume: In May 2025, China imported about 40,000 tons of cotton, a 20,000 - ton decrease month - on - month and an 86.3% decrease year - on - year. From September 2024 to May 2025, China imported about 920,000 tons of cotton. In May 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 100,000 tons, a 14.5% decrease year - on - year and a 16.67% decrease month - on - month [63]. - Mid - end Industry - Demand Side: As of the end of May, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 22.34 days, an increase of 1.36 days from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory was 31.2 days, an increase of 1.72 days from the previous month [67]. - Terminal Consumption - Demand Side: From January to May 2025, the cumulative export of textile and clothing was 838.33 billion yuan, a 2.1% increase year - on - year. In May, the export of textile and clothing was 188.84 billion yuan, a 0.2% increase year - on - year and an 8.9% increase month - on - month. As of May 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 613.8 billion yuan, a 3.3% increase year - on - year [71][73]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - related Market - Options Market: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [75]. - Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.: Information about the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is presented, but no specific data is given [80].