Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc oscillated and adjusted, with a weekly gain - loss of +0.00% and an amplitude of 1.90%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,410 yuan/ton. - Macroscopically, the non - farm payrolls in the US in June exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped. The ISM services PMI index showed mixed signals, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations decreased significantly. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad increased, the zinc ore processing fees continued to rise, and the smelter profits were further repaired. The supply growth accelerated due to new capacity release and the resumption of previous maintenance capacity. The import window was closed, and the inflow of imported zinc decreased. The downstream entered the off - season, the processing enterprise operating rate decreased year - on - year, and the consumption gradually weakened. However, the increase in LME zinc premium and the decline in inventory overseas drove up the domestic price. - Technically, the positions decreased, and both long and short sides were cautious. The price returned to the previous operating range, and attention should be paid to the MA10 support. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Periodic and Spot Market - Price and Ratio: As of July 4, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,410 yuan/ton, unchanged from June 27. As of July 3, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,738 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 32 US dollars/ton or 1.16% from June 27. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased. [9] - Net Positions and Total Positions: As of June 26, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 23,127 lots, an increase of 21,680 lots from June 20. As of July 4, 2025, the position volume of Shanghai Zinc was 262,733 lots, a decrease of 7,500 lots or 2.78% from June 27. [11] - Price Spreads: As of July 4, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from June 27. As of June 27, 2025, the lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,285 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from June 20. [16] - Spot Premiums: As of July 4, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 0.88% from June 27. The spot premium was 65 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 21.99 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 19.71 US dollars/ton from June 26. [22] - Inventory: As of July 4, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 112,325 tons, a decrease of 6,900 tons or 5.79% from June 27. The Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 45,364 tons, an increase of 1,731 tons or 3.97% from last week. As of July 3, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 63,600 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons or 7.98% from June 26. [25] 3.2 Industry Situation - Upstream - Zinc Ore: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28%. [29] - Supply - Global Refined Zinc: ILZSG data showed that in April 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1384 million tons, an increase of 0.59 million tons or 0.52% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.1224 million tons, an increase of 0.0238 million tons or 2.17% from the same period last year. The global refined zinc surplus was 0.016 million tons, compared with a surplus of 0.0339 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance was 0.0227 million tons in April 2024. [32] - Supply - Chinese Refined Zinc: National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in May 2025, the zinc output was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Customs data showed that in May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%, and the export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97%. [37][40] - Downstream - Galvanized Sheets: From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%, and the export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57%. [43] - Downstream - Real Estate: From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%, and the housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%, among which personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. [46][47][52] - Downstream - Infrastructure: From January to May 2025, the infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year. [53] - Downstream - Home Appliances: In May 2025, the refrigerator output was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator output was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. The air - conditioner output was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. [55][56] - Downstream - Automobiles: In May 2025, the automobile sales volume in China was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%, and the automobile output was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. [60]
沪锌市场周报：伦锌强势内需仍弱，预计锌价宽幅调整-20250704
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-04 09:22