铝类市场周报：淡季影响需求暂弱，铝类或将有所承压-20250704

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The alumina market is expected to have relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with cost providing support for the spot price [6] - The Shanghai aluminum market may face relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increasing inventory, but industry expectations remain positive due to the macro - environment [6] - The casting aluminum alloy market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation, and long - term expectations and cost support may provide some support for the price [8] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Key Points Summary - Market Review: Shanghai aluminum showed a slightly upward trend with a weekly increase of 0.27%, closing at 20,635 yuan/ton; alumina rebounded from a low level, with a weekly increase of 1.27%, at 3,024 yuan/ton; cast aluminum rose 0.48% to 19,885 yuan/ton [6][8] - Market Outlook: Alumina has sufficient raw material supply, stable demand, and cost - supported prices; Shanghai aluminum has stable supply, seasonal demand decline, and increasing inventory but positive industry expectations; casting aluminum alloy has weak supply and demand, seasonal inventory accumulation, and long - term positive expectations [6][8] - Strategy Suggestions: Lightly short - sell the main Shanghai aluminum contract on rallies, lightly go long on the main alumina contract on dips, and trade the main cast aluminum contract with a light position in a range - bound manner, while controlling risks [6][8] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Prices: As of July 4, 2025, Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,815 yuan/ton, up 0.17% from June 27; LME aluminum closed at $2,605.5/ton on July 3, up 0.79% from June 27; alumina futures rose 2.76% to 3,160 yuan/ton; cast aluminum alloy futures rose 0.48% to 19,885 yuan/ton [11][14] - Position and Spread: Shanghai aluminum's open interest increased by 3.02% to 691,036 lots; the net position of the top 20 increased by 10,219 lots; the aluminum - zinc spread decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 1,775 yuan/ton; the copper - aluminum spread decreased by 245 yuan/ton to 59,095 yuan/ton [17][22] - Spot Prices: Alumina spot prices in Henan rose 0.32% to 3,100 yuan/ton, while those in Shanxi and Guizhou were flat; the national average price of cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) was flat at 20,100 yuan/ton; Shanghai aluminum spot prices fell 0.91% to 20,750 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened [25][29] 3. Industry Situation - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.96% to 356,975 tons; SHFE aluminum inventory increased by 11.91% to 38,485 tons; social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 424,000 tons, unchanged from June 26 [31][34] - Raw Materials: Aluminum ore imports increased, and the nine - port inventory rose by 19 tons to 2,449 tons; waste aluminum prices slightly decreased, and both imports and exports increased [37][44] - Production and Sales: In May 2025, alumina production was 748.8 tons, up 5% year - on - year; electrolytic aluminum production was 382.8 tons, up 5% year - on - year; aluminum products production was 576.2 tons, up 0.4% year - on - year; cast aluminum alloy production was 61.6 tons; aluminum alloy production was 164.5 tons, up 16.7% year - on - year [37][54][64] - Market Demand: The real estate market slightly declined, with the housing market sentiment index falling; infrastructure investment was positive, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [67][70] 4. Options Market Analysis - Given the expected slight decline in aluminum prices in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75]