菜籽类市场周报：生柴政策利好支撑，菜油期价震荡收高-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week. Rapeseed meal futures also fluctuated and closed higher, with the 09 contract closing at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [6][7][10]. - For rapeseed oil, the Canadian government has adjusted the estimated production and planting area of rapeseed, and the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The continuous drought in western Canada has raised concerns about rapeseed yields. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient vegetable oil supply and high inventory pressure on rapeseed oil mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate has reduced the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations may tighten again, which may affect rapeseed exports to China [7]. - For rapeseed meal, the USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased, and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the market price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the operating rate of oil mills, and the supply is relatively loose, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. Although it is the peak season for aquaculture, the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate in the short - term [6]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed oil futures closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 141 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - Market outlook: The estimated production of Canadian rapeseed in 2024 has been increased, but the planting area in 2025 has been revised down. The dry weather in western Canada has affected the yield expectations. International biodiesel policies support the palm oil and soybean oil markets. In China, it is the off - season for oil consumption, with sufficient supply and high inventory pressure on mills. However, the decline in the mill's operating rate and the possible tightening of Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations are factors to be considered [7]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Participate in the short - term and pay attention to Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations [9]. - Market review: The 09 contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2,597 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous week [10]. - Market outlook: The USDA report shows that the US soybean inventory has increased and the planting area has decreased. The good condition of US soybeans restricts the price. In China, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has increased the supply of rapeseed meal, and the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 323,968 lots, an increase of 4,565 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net long positions increased from +23,230 to +24,789 [16][21]. - Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and closed higher, with a total position of 564,558 lots, a decrease of 28,543 lots from the previous week. The top 20 net short positions decreased from - 35,816 to - 4,491 [16][21]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil are 805 lots, and those of rapeseed meal are 16,232 lots [25][26]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9,730 yuan/ton, showing a rebound. The basis between the active contract of rapeseed oil and the spot price in Jiangsu is +123 yuan/ton [35]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu is 2,430 yuan/ton, showing a slight rebound. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of rapeseed meal is - 167 yuan/ton [41]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is +71 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal is +271 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [47]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 09 contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal is 3.699, and the average ratio of spot prices is 4.0 [50]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - The spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1,663 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 09 contract of rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1,135 yuan/ton, both showing narrow - range fluctuations this week [59]. - The spread between the 09 contract of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 357 yuan/ton, and the spot spread as of Thursday is 340 yuan/ton [65]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of June 27, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 150,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in June, July, and August 2025 are 260,000 tons, 130,000 tons, and 485,000 tons respectively. As of July 3, the spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed is +222 yuan/ton. As of the 26th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills is 56,500 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week, with an operating rate of 13.82%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed is 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.12% and a month - on - month decrease of 153,800 tons [69][74][78][82]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed oil in China is 884,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed oil is 111,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.31% and a month - on - month decrease of 70,900 tons [87]. - Demand: As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons. As of May 31, the catering revenue is 457.82 billion yuan. As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the contract volume of imported and crushed rapeseed oil is 159,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.13% [91][95]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 26th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed rapeseed meal in China is 9,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 27.12%. In May 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed meal is 194,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.06% and a month - on - month decrease of 103,900 tons [99][103]. - Demand: As of May 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed is 2.7621 million tons [107]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - As of July 4, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options is 17.22%, a decrease of 1.77% from the previous week, at a level comparable to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [110].