聚氯乙烯市场周报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. As of the close on July 4, 2025, the V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week's close [9]. - On the supply side, affected by the shutdown and maintenance of plants such as Ningxia Yinglite and Inner Mongolia Sanlian this week, the PVC capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.65% month - on - month to 77.44%. On the demand side, the downstream PVC operating rate increased by 0.1% month - on - month to 42.88%, among which the pipe operating rate increased by 0.94% month - on - month to 39.5%, and the profile operating rate decreased by 0.25% month - on - month to 34.75%. In terms of inventory, this week's PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% month - on - month to 78.51 tons, at a neutral level in the same period of the past three years. In terms of cost, this week, the national average cost of the calcium carbide method increased slightly to 5109 yuan/ton, and the national average cost of the ethylene method increased to 5647 yuan/ton. The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened to varying degrees [9]. - In July, domestic PVC plants will have centralized maintenance. Next week, plants such as Shanxi Yushe, Yanhu Haina, and Ordos have shutdown plans, and it is expected that the capacity utilization rate will maintain a downward trend. In July, plants such as Wanhua, Bohua, and Tianjin Dagu are planned to be put into production. The policy to promote the withdrawal of backward production capacity is expected to relieve the future supply pressure. It is the off - season for domestic downstream demand, and the demand in the Indian market is suppressed by the rainy season. The Indian BIS certification has been postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy may be implemented in early July. In terms of cost, the impact of power rationing in Inner Mongolia has weakened, and some calcium carbide plants have resumed production; the United States has revoked the restrictions on ethane exports to China, which may drive down the cost of the ethylene method in the future. In the short term, the expectation of production capacity withdrawal and real - estate support policies gives room for the premium of the main futures contract, but the contract price is suppressed by the weak supply - demand and cost in the real market. It is expected that V2509 will fluctuate weakly next week. Technically, pay attention to the support around 4810 and the resistance around 4960 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The main PVC futures price fluctuated in the range of 4807 - 4956. The V2509 contract closed at 4906 yuan/ton, down 0.26% from last week [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased by 0.65% to 77.44%; demand - side downstream operating rate increased by 0.1% to 42.88%, with pipe operating rate up 0.94% and profile operating rate down 0.25%. PP commercial inventory decreased by 0.09% to 78.51 tons. Calcium carbide method cost rose to 5109 yuan/ton, and ethylene method cost rose to 5647 yuan/ton, with losses deepening [9]. - Outlook: July has centralized plant maintenance, capacity utilization is expected to decline. New plant launches and policy - driven capacity withdrawal may relieve supply pressure. It's the off - season for domestic demand, and Indian demand is affected by the rainy season. Cost may decline. The futures contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - The V2509 contract fluctuated. The registered warehouse receipt volume increased slightly. The main contract's open interest fluctuated slightly, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened slightly [10][13]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - CFR China quoted at 700 dollars (- 20); Southeast Asia quoted at 660 dollars (- 20); India quoted at 720 dollars (- 20). The spot prices of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC in East China fluctuated slightly. The basis was slightly weak, and the futures contract was at a premium [20][25][28]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - The price of semi - coke remained stable, and calcium carbide was slightly stronger. The semi - coke operating rate was 39.59%, and the calcium carbide operating rate was 63.86%. The VCM CIF intermediate price was 520 dollars/ton, and the EDC international price was 184 dollars/ton [36][41][45]. 3.3.2 Industry Chain - Supply: The PVC capacity growth rate in 2025 is expected to be 10.77%. The output in June was 1.9913 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [49][53]. - Demand: The pipe operating rate increased week - on - week, and the profile operating rate decreased. The export of PVC floor products in May decreased month - on - month. In May, imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [57][61][64]. - Inventory: PVC social inventory changed from destocking to stocking [69]. - Cost: The cost of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method increased week - on - week [73]. - Profit: The losses of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method processes deepened [80]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was reported at 12.99%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 21.7% [86].