铁矿石市场周报：铁水维持高位运行，铁矿期价震荡走高-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market is influenced by both macro and industrial factors. Macro factors, including tariff disturbances and anti - cut - throat competition governance, have a significant impact on the sentiment of the black - series commodities. Industrially, the supply of iron ore has little change, inventory increases slightly, and hot metal production remains at a high level, providing demand support. Overall, considering the market situation, the I2509 contract is recommended for range trading, and attention should be paid to operation rhythm and risk control. Also, it is suggested to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [8][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1 Price - As of July 4th, the closing price of the iron ore main contract was 732.5 (+16) yuan/ton, and the price of Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 773 (+18) yuan/dry ton [6]. 3.1.2 Shipment - The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,882.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178.5 million tons. From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,357.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 149.1 million tons [5][6]. 3.1.3 Arrival - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 2,413.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.4 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 2,363.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 199.7 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1,217.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 63.7 million tons [6]. 3.1.4 Demand - The daily average hot metal production was 2.4085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.44 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.53 million tons [6]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of July 4th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,485.9 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.67 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1,109.76 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 8,918.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 71.1 million tons [6]. 3.1.6 Profit Rate - The profit rate of steel mills was 59.31%, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year increase of 14.72 percentage points [6]. 3.1.7 Market Outlook - Macro: Overseas, Trump's tariff policies and trade agreements with Vietnam have an impact; domestically, the central government emphasizes anti - cut - throat competition and the National Development and Reform Commission allocates over 300 billion yuan for the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. - Supply - demand: The shipment and arrival of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decrease, while the domestic port inventory continues to increase slightly. The blast furnace operating rate and hot metal production of steel mills decline but remain at a high level, and the demand for hot metal still provides support. - Technical: The I2509 contract of iron ore moves upwards, with the daily K - line above multiple moving averages; the MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA continue to rise, and the red bars expand. - Strategy: Considering the macro and industrial situations, the I2509 contract is recommended for range trading, paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Futures Price - This week, the I2509 contract fluctuated strongly. It was weaker than the I2601 contract, with the spread on the 4th being 25.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton [14]. 3.2.2 Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On July 4th, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 3,300, a week - on - week increase of 300. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 44,788, a decrease of 4,795 compared to last week [21]. 3.2.3 Spot Price - On July 4th, the price of 61% Australian Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was stronger than the futures price, with the basis on the 4th being 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [27]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Arrival Volume - From June 23rd to June 29th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 149.1 million tons week - on - week, and the shipment from Australia and Brazil decreased by 178.5 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 359.4 million tons week - on - week, while the arrival volume at six northern ports increased by 63.7 million tons week - on - week [30]. 3.3.2 Inventory - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14,485.90 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.67 million tons; the average daily port clearance volume was 3.3419 million tons, a decrease of 475,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 8,918.57 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 71.10 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills was 3.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 440,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.65 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 days [33]. 3.3.3 Inventory Availability - As of July 3rd, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for domestic large - and medium - sized steel mills was 19 days, remaining the same as last week. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) on July 3rd was 1,434, a week - on - week decrease of 87 [38]. 3.3.4 Import and Mine Capacity Utilization - In May, China's iron ore imports decreased by 5 million tons compared to the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9%; from January to May, the cumulative imports decreased by 5.2% year - on - year. As of June 27th, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 65.49%, a month - on - month increase of 4.17%; the daily output of concentrate powder was 413,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,300 tons; the inventory was 532,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 51,700 tons [41]. 3.3.5 Iron Ore Production - In May 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production was 85.787 million tons; from January to May, the cumulative production decreased by 10.1% year - on - year. In May, the iron concentrate powder production of 433 domestic iron mines was 24.066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.051 million tons, an increase of 4.6%; from January to May, the cumulative production decreased by 10.645 million tons, a decrease of 8.5% [44]. 3.4 Downstream Situation 3.4.1 Crude Steel Production - In May 2025, China's crude steel production was 86.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%; from January to May, the cumulative production decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [48]. 3.4.2 Steel Import and Export - In May 2025, China's steel exports were 10.578 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 116,000 tons, an increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative exports increased by 8.9% year - on - year. In May, China's steel imports were 481,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41,000 tons, a decrease of 7.9%; from January to May, the cumulative imports decreased by 16.1% year - on - year [48]. 3.4.3 Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production - On July 4th, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 0.65 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.29%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 percentage points, a year - on - year increase of 1.21 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4085 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53 million tons [51]. 3.5 Options Market - Due to the anti - cut - throat competition policy boosting the black - series commodities and the increasing iron ore port inventory with potential long - term supply pressure, it is recommended to continue holding short positions in out - of - the - money call options [54].