Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have some adjustment space in the third - quarter off - season due to fundamental inventory accumulation and a decline in scrap substitution, but there is strong support below and a significant drop requires a macro black - swan event with a low probability [1]. - Aluminum supply increases slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc short - selling allocation remains unchanged, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended. Internal - external positive arbitrage can be continued [4]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and there may be a risk of a price - support cycle if the price remains above 17200 due to macro influences [7]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long - term [9]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production, and the market expectation has changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction [13]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long - term if the leading enterprises' operating rates do not significantly decline. In the short - term, supply is expected to continue to be in surplus, causing inventory accumulation and upward pressure on prices [13]. - For nickel, continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [15]. - Stainless steel is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term as the fundamentals remain weak [17]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium decreased by 5, the scrap - refined copper spread decreased by 236, the SHFE inventory increased by 3039, and the SHFE copper warrant decreased by 1796 [1]. - Market Situation: This week, copper prices showed an inverted V - shaped trend. Macro data was inconsistent, and the interest - rate cut expectation was unstable. Domestically, inventory accumulated, the off - season led to a decline in the operating rate, and the scrap - refined substitution effect weakened. There is an expectation of medium - level inventory accumulation from July to August [1]. Aluminum - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 90, the domestic alumina price increased by 3, and the SHFE aluminum social inventory increased by 0.6 (from 42.2 to 42.8). The SHFE aluminum exchange inventory increased by 342 [1]. - Market Situation: Supply increased slightly, demand is expected to weaken seasonally in July, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. Pay attention to demand and consider far - month inter - month and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [1]. Zinc - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium increased by 20, the SHFE zinc social inventory increased by 0.00, and the SHFE zinc exchange inventory increased by 1731 [2]. - Market Situation: This week, zinc prices fluctuated widely. Supply is expected to increase in July, demand is seasonally weak both domestically and overseas, domestic social inventory is increasing, and overseas LME inventory has been decreasing since May [4]. Lead - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the spot premium decreased by 10, the SHFE lead social inventory remained unchanged, and the SHFE lead exchange inventory increased by 1374 [6]. - Market Situation: This week, lead prices rose moderately. Supply - side issues include weak scrap battery supply and tight TC. Demand - side battery inventory is high, and there is a trading expectation for the peak season. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week [7]. Tin - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the spot import gain decreased by 116.47, the spot export gain increased by 216.84, and the LME tin inventory decreased by 55 [8]. - Market Situation: This week, tin prices fluctuated widely. Supply is affected by the uncertain resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on short - selling opportunities after the maintenance period in the medium - to - long - term [9]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 30, the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 70, and the number of warrants decreased by 153 [13]. - Market Situation: The leading enterprise continued to cut production, and the market expectation has changed from inventory accumulation to inventory reduction. It is expected to oscillate if the leading enterprise continues to cut production [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 200, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 200, and the number of registered warrants decreased by 1844 [13]. - Market Situation: This week, lithium carbonate prices rose due to the "anti - involution" policy. There was overall inventory accumulation this week. In the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly if the leading enterprises' operating rates do not significantly decline [13]. Nickel - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the 1.5% Philippine nickel ore price decreased by 0.5, the SHFE nickel spot price increased by 950, and the LME nickel inventory decreased by 1158 [15]. - Market Situation: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, and overseas nickel plate inventory is stable while domestic inventory decreased slightly. Continue to pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [15]. Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Changes: From June 30 to July 4, the 304 cold - rolled coil price remained unchanged, the 201 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 25, and the 430 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 50 [17]. - Market Situation: Supply has been partially reduced since late May, demand is mainly for essential needs, costs are stable, and inventory has slightly increased in Xijiao and Foshan. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [17].
永安期货有色早报-20250707
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-07 01:31