农产品早报-20250707

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the research center's agricultural products team on July 7, 2025 [1] Group 2: Corn and Starch Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price in Changchun remained at 2260, the price in Jinzhou remained at 2330, the price in Weifang decreased by 8 to 2450, and the price in Shekou remained at 2460. The basis increased by 10 to -23, the trade profit remained at 0, and the import profit decreased by 8 to 423. For starch, the price in Heilongjiang and Weifang remained at 2850 and 2950 respectively, the basis increased by 14 to 128, and the processing profit remained at -66 [2] Market Analysis - Recently, the reserve auction of imported corn has slightly increased market supply, relieving the tense market sentiment. In the short term, the auction aims to ease market tension rather than suppress prices, and the low old - crop inventory still supports corn prices. In the long term, the widening import profit may lead to increased imports and weaker far - month prices. For starch, some enterprises raised prices due to production losses this week. In the short term, strong raw material prices support starch prices, but high inventory limits the rebound. In the long term, the off - season consumption restricts price increases, and after a small profit repair, short the far - month contracts [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained stable, the Liuzhou basis decreased by 2 to 381, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 96 to 23424 [4] Market Analysis - Internationally, due to drought and irregular rainfall in Brazil's 25/26 sugar season from April to May, the yield per unit and sugar content per ton of sugarcane decreased. However, the high sugar - making ratio and production increase expectations led to a decline in the 07 - contract raw sugar price, which rebounded after Pakistan's import announcement. The domestic market follows the international trend [4] Group 4: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 5 to 14975, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts decreased by 77 to 10329, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 6 to -1333 [5] Market Analysis - The rapid decline in cotton inventory has driven up prices recently, but there is resistance from hedging orders. The weak downstream demand limits the acceptance of high prices. If demand worsens or there are macro - risks, prices may fall; otherwise, they will remain volatile [5] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the prices in Hebei, Liaoning, Shandong, and Henan remained stable, the price in Hubei increased by 0.02 to 2.91, the basis decreased by 86 to -54, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.10 to 3.25, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.29 to 20.58 [11] Market Analysis - Since late April, the increasing breeding losses have made farmers more willing to cull chickens. The spot price rebounded slightly in mid - June due to increased culling and cold - storage egg demand, but then fell again due to a supply - chain disruption. The culling intensity this year is expected to be lower than in previous years, and the high inventory may limit the seasonal price rebound [11] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained at 8500. The national inventory increased by 24, Shandong inventory increased by 27, and Shandong inventory increased by 25 [13][14] Market Analysis - In the new season, apple bagging has ended in various regions. There is a slight production decline expected nationwide, with a 20% decline expected in Shandong. The 2024/25 apple consumption is in the off - season, and the apparent inventory is the lowest in the past five years, with a slight slowdown in de - stocking recently. The impact of the expected production decline needs further observation [14] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the prices in Henan Kaifeng, Hubei Xiangyang, Shandong Linyi, and Jiangsu Nantong changed slightly, and the basis increased by 15 to 825 [14] Market Analysis - The long - term capacity reduction is limited, and the near - term de - stocking still has room. The futures market is trading on seasonal rebound expectations, but it needs spot verification. The weekend spot price decline, increased slaughter, and high - temperature suppression of consumption have weakened market sentiment. The de - stocking path is crucial for the far - month price trend [14]