Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - L利多因素: The price of nickel ore remains firm, with strong price - holding intentions from mines, and rising sea freight costs support the cost. Policy disturbances in Indonesia (such as shortened quotas) and favorable new - energy policies strengthen the expectation of a strong supply chain [3]. - 利空因素: Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season for demand, increasing the pressure to reduce inventory and suppressing consumption. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is expected to loosen, and combined with high - level inventory fluctuations, the supply - demand contradiction has weakened [3]. - 交易咨询观点: There are limited changes in the fundamentals. Nickel price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and macro factors, and there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - 镍期货: The latest value of SHFE nickel main contract is 122,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.28%. The latest value of LME nickel 3M is 15,355 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 165 dollars and an increase rate of 1.17%. The trading volume increased by 60.25% week - on - week, while the position decreased by 6.9% week - on - week [4]. - 不锈钢期货: The latest value of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,730 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 170 yuan and an increase rate of 1%. The trading volume decreased by 9.97% week - on - week, and the position decreased by 8.28% week - on - week [4]. - 现货价格: The latest value of Jinchuan nickel is 124,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 800 yuan and an increase rate of 0.65%. The latest value of imported nickel is 122,750 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan and an increase rate of 0.74% [4]. - 库存情况: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 202,470 tons, a decrease of 1,158 tons. The stainless - steel social inventory is 978 tons, a decrease of 14.1 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [4][6]. Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel - 产量情况: The report presents the seasonal production of China's refined nickel, total monthly supply of primary nickel including imports, nickel - iron production in China and Indonesia [14][18][20]. - 库存情况: It shows the seasonal changes in domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel inventory, as well as the seasonal changes in nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports [15][16]. Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - 价格情况: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) are presented, along with the seasonal profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate [22][24][26]. - 产量情况: The monthly production of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown [28]. Stainless Steel - 利润率情况: The seasonal profit margin of China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils is presented [29]. - 产量和库存情况: The seasonal production and inventory of stainless steel are shown [30][32].
镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250707
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2025-07-07 02:57