原油成品油早报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. The WTI spot market remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4th ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share. Trump stated that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week and planned to hold nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi-related enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained stable this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs dropped rapidly by July 4th, and the US fundamentals remained tight. Global refinery profits rebounded this week, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. WTI and Brent are stronger than Dubai, showing market differentiation. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5] Summary by Directory 1. Oil Price Data - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the price of WTI fluctuated, BRENT decreased by $0.50, and OMAN decreased by $2.80. Other related prices such as DUBAI, SC, and various refined oil products also showed different degrees of changes [3] 2. Daily News - OPEC+ will increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to regain market share. Since April, the released production will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, and only 280,000 barrels per day of the previously voluntarily cut production remains unrecovered. The next meeting is on August 3rd [3] - The US plans to hold nuclear negotiations with Iran in Oslo next week [3] - Barclays raised its 2025 Brent crude oil price forecast to $72 per barrel and the 2026 forecast to $70 per barrel [4] - The US Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises for Iranian oil smuggling [4] - Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended long - term support for solar and wind energy and created a favorable environment for oil, gas, and coal production. It opened federal lands and waters for oil and gas drilling, reduced royalty payments, and phased out tax credits for wind and solar energy projects after 2027 [4] - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil for Asia in August at a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [5] - Trump said an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week [5] 3. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day [5] - In the week of June 27, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.2 million barrels to 13.433 million barrels per day [5] - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [5] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.288 million barrels per day, a 1.12% decrease compared to the same period last year [5] - In the week of June 27, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 0.239 million barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [5] - In the week of June 27, US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves increased by 0.975 million barrels per day to 6.919 million barrels per day [5] - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [5]