大越期货股指期货早报-20250707

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market showed a pattern of rising and then falling last Friday, with the index oscillating strongly throughout the week, and a rotation of hotspots between large - and small - cap stocks [3]. - The balance of margin trading increased by 1 billion yuan to 1.8429 trillion yuan, presenting a neutral situation [3]. - The basis shows that IH2507 has a discount of 16.95 points, and IF2507 has a discount of 21.47 points, which is neutral. IC2507 has a discount of 48.66 points, and IM2507 has a discount of 63.24 points, indicating a bearish signal [3]. - The main contracts are ranked as IM > IC > IF > IH. All of them are above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish sign [3]. - Regarding the positions of the main players, the long positions of IH main players decreased, those of IF main players increased, and those of IC main players decreased, overall showing a bullish tendency [3]. - With the relaxation of mutual sanctions between China and the US and the cooling of geopolitical tensions, the global market risk appetite has increased. The index is expected to oscillate strongly. After adjustment, the banking sector rebounded, while small - and medium - cap stocks are oscillating at high levels. Attention should be paid to whether the trading volume can further increase, and intraday chasing of highs is not recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - IH Contracts: For IH2507, the contract price is 2,723.00 with a 0.61% increase, and the trading volume is 19,657. Different contracts have different discounts, spreads, and annualized discounts [4]. - IF Contracts: IF2507 has a contract price of 3,963.80 with a 0.44% increase and a trading volume of 43,577. Each contract has its own discount, spread, and annualized discount [4]. - IC Contracts: IC2507 has a contract price of 5,874.20 with a - 0.01% change and a trading volume of 43,750. Contracts show various discounts, spreads, and annualized discounts [4]. - IM Contracts: IM2507 has a contract price of 6,262.00 with a - 0.29% change and a trading volume of 67,153. Different contracts have different discount and spread situations [4]. Spot Market - Important Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50, CSI 300, and other important indexes have different daily price changes. For example, the SSE 50 had a 0.58% increase [12]. - Style Indexes: Different style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, and others also showed various daily price changes [15][18]. Market Structure - AH Share Premium: The Hang Seng AH Premium Index shows a certain trend over time [21]. - PE and PB: The price - to - earnings ratios (PE) and price - to - book ratios (PB) of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index have long - term trends [24][26]. Market Fundamentals - Fund Inflow: The net inflow of A - share funds and the CSI 300 index show corresponding trends [28]. - Margin Trading Balance: The margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index have a certain relationship over time [30]. - Northbound Capital: The net inflow of northbound capital shows fluctuations [32]. - Fund Cost: The SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates show trends over time [38]. Market Sentiment - Turnover Rate: The turnover rates of SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index (based on free - floating market value) show different trends [41][44]. - Mutual Fund Positions: The positions of public - offering hybrid funds show a certain trend [46]. Others - Dividend Yield and Bond Yield: The dividend yield of index futures and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds show trends over time [50]. - Exchange Rate: The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan shows a certain trend [52].