大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250707

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 7, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: In June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Off - season for agricultural films, weak downstream demand for packaging films, many enterprises reducing loads, overall downstream demand weak, new production capacity pressure remains. Current LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), overall fundamental is bearish [4]. Other Indicators - Basis: LLDPE 2509 contract basis is 48, premium ratio is 0.7%, bullish [4]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive inventory is 500,000 tons (-0.5), neutral [4]. - Disk: LLDPE main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [4]. - Main Position: LLDPE main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [4]. - Expectation: The plastic main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, production pressure remains, industrial inventory is neutral. PE is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [6] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [6] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, in contraction range for three consecutive months; Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. Supply - demand: Downstream demand is in the off - season, demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Current PP delivery spot price is 7250 (-0), overall fundamental is bearish [7]. Other Indicators - Basis: PP 2509 contract basis is 172, premium ratio is 2.4%, bullish [7]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive inventory is 570,000 tons (-1.5), neutral [7]. - Disk: PP main contract 20 - day moving average is upward, closing price is below the 20 - day line, neutral [7]. - Main Position: PP main position is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. OPEC increases production for the fourth consecutive month, downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak, industrial inventory is neutral. PP is expected to fluctuate today [7]. Factors - Bullish: Cost support [9] - Bearish: New production capacity launch, weak demand [9] - Main Logic: Cost - demand game, tariff policy [9] Group 4: Market Data LLDPE - Spot prices: LL delivery spot price is 7330 (+50), LL import US dollar price is 840 (0), LL import conversion price is 7393 (-4), LL import price difference is - 63 (+54) [10]. - Futures prices: L01 is 7243 (-19), L05 is 7221 (-27), L09 is 7282 (-2) [10]. - Inventory: PE comprehensive factory inventory is 500,000 tons, social inventory is 507,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 5831 (+200) [10]. PP - Spot prices: PP delivery spot price is 7250 (0), PP import US dollar price is 885 (0), PP import conversion price is 7781 (-4), PP import price difference is - 531 (+4) [10]. - Futures prices: PP01 is 7042 (+1), PP05 is 7032 (-9), PP09 is 7078 (+4) [10]. - Inventory: PP comprehensive factory inventory is 570,000 tons, social inventory is 252,000 tons, warehouse receipts are 7292 (-100) [10] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. showed different trends. For example, capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [15]. Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, etc. also changed. Capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17]