大越期货聚烯烃周报-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, L09 fell 0.27% to close at 7282, with a total position reduction of about 19,900 lots. PP09 fell 0.35% to close at 7078, with a total position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Technically, the recent main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The main position in Dayue's five major indicators shows that the net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, with the futures price at a discount to the spot price. [5] - From a fundamental perspective, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 5, OPEC issued an increase production statement, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. In terms of supply and demand, it is the off - season for PE agricultural films, and the downstream of packaging films remains weak. Most enterprises have reduced their loads, and the overall downstream demand is weak. There is still pressure from the commissioning of new production capacity in the future. It is also the off - season for PP downstream demand, and the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc. is weak. Recently, there have been signs of relaxation in Sino - US exchanges, and attention should be paid to the negotiation situation. The inventory in the polyolefin industry chain is neutral. It is expected that the main contracts of L and PP will fluctuate this week. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - Price and Position Changes: L09 fell 0.27% to 7282 with a position reduction of about 19,900 lots; PP09 fell 0.35% to 7078 with a position reduction of about 1,200 lots. Other contracts also had corresponding price and position changes. For example, L01 decreased by 0.03% to 7243, and PP05 increased by 0.18% to 7032. [5][6] - Technical and Position Analysis: The main contracts of L and PP are running near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral technical trend. The net positions of high - winning - rate seats for L and PP are both bearish recently. [5] - Basis Analysis: The basis of the L main contract is 48, and that of the PP main contract is 172, indicating that the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. [5] 3.2 Spot and Inventory - Spot Price Changes: The prices of L and PP delivery products and social inventories have changed. For example, the price of L delivery products increased by 10 to 7330, and the price of PP delivery products remained unchanged at 7250. [6] - Inventory Changes: PE comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 0.6 to 50.0, and PE social inventory increased by 42 to 50.7; PP comprehensive factory inventory decreased by 15 to 57.0, and PP social inventory increased by 19 to 25.2. [6] 3.3 Production Profit - Profit Changes: The production profits of L and PP from different sources (oil - based, coal - based, PDH) have changed. For example, L oil - based production profit decreased by 242 to - 219, and PP PDH production profit increased by 247 to - 355. [6] 3.4 Supply and Demand Balance - Polyethylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and other indicators of polyethylene have changed. The production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 5.1% to 20.5%. The import dependence has shown a downward trend, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. [16] - Polypropylene: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates between 8.9% and 19.0%. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. [18] 3.5 Downstream Market - PE Downstream: The average starting rate of PE downstream shows certain fluctuations throughout the year, reflecting the changing demand in the PE downstream market. [53] - PP Downstream: The average starting rate of PP downstream also fluctuates, indicating the demand situation in the PP downstream market. [56] 3.6 Other Market Indicators - Warehouse Receipts: The number of L and PP warehouse receipts shows changes over time, which can reflect the inventory and market supply and demand situation to some extent. [14] - Opening Rates: The opening rates of PE and PP production show different trends throughout the year, which are related to production capacity utilization and market supply. [32][35] - Production Cash Flows: The production cash flows of PE and PP from different sources (coal - based, oil - based, PDH) show fluctuations over time, reflecting the profitability of different production methods. [38][41] - External Market Prices: The internal - external price differences of polyolefins and the US - dollar prices of PE and PP in the external market show corresponding changes, which are affected by international market supply and demand and exchange rates. [44][47][50]