大越期货原油早报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Weekend OPEC+ confirmed production increase in August, with a daily increase of 548,000 barrels exceeding market expectations, bringing strong short - term downward risk to oil prices. Trump's tariff exemption period expires this week. Although the US Treasury Secretary said that several trade agreements are close to being reached, other major economies are not optimistic. There are still many negative factors to be released this week, and short - term oil prices are under obvious pressure. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Crude Oil 2508 Fundamental Analysis: The US is close to reaching several trade agreements, and OPEC+ will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The global economic outlook is stable, and market fundamentals are healthy. The basis shows that the spot price is higher than the futures price. US API and EIA inventories increased, while Cushing area inventory decreased. The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is below the average. WTI crude oil's main position has more long - positions increasing, while Brent crude oil's main position has more long - positions decreasing. Short - term, oil prices will operate in the 490 - 500 range, and long - term, it is advisable to wait and see [3]. - Futures and Spot Market Quotes: Brent crude oil settlement price dropped from 68.80 to 68.30, a decrease of 0.73%; WTI crude oil settlement price dropped from 67.00 to 62.36, a decrease of 6.93%; SC crude oil settlement price rose from 503.7 to 506.4, an increase of 0.54%; Oman crude oil settlement price rose from 68.70 to 69.78, an increase of 1.57%. In the spot market, prices of various types of crude oil also changed to different degrees [7][9]. 2. Recent News - Tariff Situation: As the July 9 tariff deadline approaches, the global market faces a crucial week. The US may re - impose tariffs on dozens of countries after July 9. The US Treasury Secretary said that trade partners need to reach an agreement by August 1, otherwise, tariffs will return to the level on April 2. India and the US may reach a mini - trade agreement in 24 - 48 hours, with an average tariff of about 10%, but India has set red lines in agriculture and dairy products [5]. - OPEC+ Production Increase: OPEC+ decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day from August, and may consider another 548,000 - barrel - per - day increase in September. If so, it will revoke the 2.2 - million - barrel - per - day production cut plan implemented in 2023 one year ahead of schedule. However, the actual supply increase may be lower than expected because Saudi Arabia is pressuring over - producing countries. Saudi Arabia raised oil prices for the Asian market after the production increase announcement, showing confidence in the market [5]. 3. Multi - Empty Concerns - Positive Factors: The Russia - Ukraine conflict has intensified again [6]. - Negative Factors: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months; the US has tense trade relations with other economies; Iran and Israel have reached a cease - fire [6]. - Market Drivers: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts drive up prices, and in the medium - to - long - term, it awaits the peak summer demand season [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Inventory Data: US API crude oil inventory increased by 680,000 barrels in the week ending June 28, and EIA inventory increased by 3.845 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 1.493 million barrels in the week ending June 28. As of July 4, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.957 million barrels [3]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet showing the supply - demand gap, OPEC+ crude oil production, and the call on OPEC+ from 2023 to 2026 [18][19]. 5. Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of June 24, the net long - position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 1,921 [15]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of June 24, the net long - position of Brent crude oil funds decreased by 80,577 [17].