大越期货甲醇周报-20250707

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that the domestic methanol market may undergo differential adjustments in the short term. In the port area, there may be a risk of inventory accumulation due to the inflow of some inland supplies for arbitrage and the concentrated arrival of imported goods next week. With the expectation of an increase in subsequent imports, short - term confidence among industry players is insufficient. However, the suspension of Iran's cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog provides some macro - level support, so port methanol is likely to fluctuate under the game between bulls and bears in the short term. In the inland area, upstream methanol enterprises have low inventories, and recent concentrated maintenance of methanol plants in production areas has relieved supply - side pressure. But most downstream industries, especially MTO, are suffering serious losses, with difficulties in cost transfer. Also, downstream users in sales areas have high raw material inventories. After the rebound of methanol prices in production areas this week, traders are cautious about chasing the price increase, and there is no supply gap in the market. With multiple factors at play, inland methanol is expected to move sideways next week. Continuous attention should be paid to port inventory, olefin procurement, and macro - level news [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Review - It is expected that the domestic methanol market will have differential adjustments in the short term, with different trends in ports and inland areas as described above [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - Domestic Methanol Spot Price: From June 27th to July 4th, prices in most regions decreased, with Jiangsu down 13.30%, Lunan down 2.19%, Hebei down 0.68%, Fujian down 3.09%, while Inner Mongolia increased 1.52% [7]. - Methanol Futures and Basis: The futures price increased 0.25% from June 27th to July 4th, and the basis decreased by 381 [9]. - Methanol Production Profits by Process: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 54, natural gas - to - methanol profit decreased by 50, and coke oven gas - to - methanol profit increased by 342 from June 27th to July 4th [10]. - Domestic Methanol Enterprise Load: Nationally, it decreased by 3.81% to 74.90% this week compared to last week; in the Northwest, it decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [12]. - Outer - Market Methanol Price and Spread: CFR China decreased by 1.77% to 277 dollars/ton, CFR Southeast Asia decreased by 2.84% to 341.5 dollars/ton, and the spread changed from - 69.5 to - 64.5 [15]. - Methanol Import Spread: The import cost decreased by 1.82%, and the import spread decreased by 330 from June 27th to July 4th [18]. - Methanol Traditional Downstream Product Prices: Formaldehyde remained unchanged, dimethyl ether remained unchanged, and acetic acid decreased by 0.93% from June 27th to July 4th [25]. - Production Profits and Loads of Traditional Downstream Products: Formaldehyde production profit increased by 7, load increased by 0.90%; dimethyl ether production profit increased by 21, load increased by 0.82%; acetic acid production profit increased by 181, load increased by 1.94% [26][28][33]. - MTO Production Profit and Load: The MTO production profit increased from - 2324 to - 1124, and the load decreased from 79.84% to 79.69% [37]. - Methanol Port Inventory: In the East China port, it decreased by 2.33 to 34.27, and in the South China port, it decreased by 1.11 to 15.7 [38]. - Methanol Warehouse Receipts and Effective Forecasts: Warehouse receipts increased by 7.96% to 8655, and effective forecasts remained at 95 [42]. 3.3检修状况 - Domestic Methanol Plant Maintenance: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, with different regions having various maintenance situations, such as Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [44]. - Overseas Methanol Plant Operation: Some overseas methanol plants are in the process of restarting or have normal operations, while some are under maintenance, like ZPC in Iran, QAFAC in Qatar, etc. [45]. - Olefin Plant Operation: Some olefin plants are under maintenance, while others are operating normally or with reduced loads, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, Ningbo Fude, etc. [46].