OPEC+再度确认增产，油价缺乏明确动力

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The crude oil price is expected to continue a wide - range volatile trend and may struggle to rebound significantly with the expectation of a looser supply side. It is recommended to keep an eye on the latest minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting and the monthly reports of major institutions [65]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, the oil price showed a wide - range volatile trend and returned to a weaker state in the second half. This week, it may still operate with a weak and volatile trend, lacking clear directional momentum. The recommended price range to watch is 480 - 510 yuan/barrel. Short - spread operations are advisable, and short positions can be cautiously established on price increases. Attention should also be paid to the monthly reports released by major institutions over the weekend [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the oil price had a wide - range volatile movement. It briefly rose on Wednesday due to the unexpected decline in ADP data and the increased market expectation of interest rate cuts. However, after the release of non - farm payroll data, it quickly gave back the gains. In the second half of the week, the market focused on OPEC+ production increases, leading to a continuous weakening of the oil price [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macroeconomics - Non - farm payrolls suppress interest rate cut expectations: The US June ADP employment number was - 33,000, far lower than the expected 95,000, which led to a surge in market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September. But the non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, better than expected. The market abandoned the expectation of a July rate cut, and the expectation of a September rate cut dropped to 80% [24]. - Uncertainty in US tariffs: President Trump announced on Friday that he would send letters to trading partners to set unilateral tariff rates, with rates ranging from 10% to 70%, higher than the previous proposed 50%. Negotiations with major trading partners have reached a deadlock, which may make the global economic situation more severe [26]. - Geopolitical tensions ease: The US announced a partial suspension of weapon supplies to Ukraine, easing the intensity of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to some extent. However, the Trump - Putin call was ineffective, and there is still uncertainty in the Russia - Ukraine situation. The US plans to restart nuclear negotiations with Iran, which may reduce the market's perception of Middle - East geopolitical volatility [30]. 3.3.2 Supply - OPEC achieved production increase in May: The total production of OPEC+ increased by 180,000 barrels per day from April to May. Saudi Arabia, Libya, and the UAE had notable production increases, while Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela had production decreases [33]. - OPEC+ confirms continued production increase: There are market rumors that OPEC+ is discussing an additional production increase of 411,000 barrels per day in August. If implemented, it will further increase supply - side pressure. However, the market has become accustomed to OPEC+ production increases, and the production changes in the OPEC monthly report in mid - month are crucial [34]. - Saudi Arabia's production increases: Saudi Arabia's oil production has shown an upward trend [38]. - Iraq's compensatory production cuts: Iraq has carried out compensatory production cuts [40]. - US production remains stable: The US oil production has maintained a relatively stable level [43]. 3.3.3 Demand - Slight improvement in summer demand expectations: There are signs of a slight improvement in the expected oil demand in summer [45]. - Manufacturing remains in contraction: The manufacturing PMIs in the US and China indicate that the manufacturing sector is still in a contraction state [48]. - Slight slowdown in refined oil production: The production of refined oil has shown a slight slowdown [53]. 3.3.4 Inventory - Crude oil inventory build - up suppresses oil price performance: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased in the week ending June 28, mainly due to a significant increase in net imports. This eases the previous expectation of low inventory and may increase supply - side pressure [55]. - Differentiated consumption of refined oil remains weak: In the week ending June 28, US gasoline inventory increased, mainly due to increased refinery production and weak summer consumption. Refined oil inventory decreased due to increased industrial and transportation demand and increased diesel net exports [59]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - The supply - side changes in the commodity attribute of crude oil are the core factor affecting future oil prices. If OPEC+ production increases and summer consumption does not improve significantly, the oil price may not improve. The non - farm payroll data has suppressed the short - term interest rate cut expectation, increasing macro - economic pressure. Geopolitical conflicts have eased, reducing the impact on oil prices. Overall, the oil price may continue to be volatile and difficult to rebound significantly [65].