《农产品》日报-20250707

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Palm Oil - Before the MPOB report, there is a chance for palm oil to reach the 4,200 ringgit mark. After the report, there is a risk of a high - level pullback and a new round of weakening and decline. In the domestic market, Dalian palm oil futures are in a strong and volatile consolidation, with support at 8,500, and may continue to rise after the consolidation. Overall, a near - strong and far - weak view is maintained [1]. Soybean Oil - The main factor affecting CBOT soybean oil is the US biodiesel policy. In the domestic market, spot prices follow the market down, and the basis quotation has limited fluctuation. With high soybean imports and increased production, factory soybean oil inventories will increase, dragging down the basis quotation [1]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices may adjust due to market sentiment and policy auctions, but the tight supply limits the decline. In the medium term, the supply - demand gap in the third quarter supports price increases [2]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar production decreased in the first half of June. The increase in the ethanol - gasoline blend ratio in Brazil supports the raw sugar price, but the global supply surplus limits the rebound. The domestic sugar market is expected to be marginally looser, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound [6]. Cotton - The downstream cotton industry is weak, with low demand and continued decline in spinning mill operation rates. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate in a higher range, but there is a risk of a pullback if the downstream remains weak [9]. Eggs - The national egg supply is sufficient, but prices are at a low level, which may attract traders to replenish stocks. Most areas' egg prices are expected to stabilize and then rise slightly, with a small decline risk in a few areas [10]. Meal - The US soybean planting area report has a neutral impact. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are rising, and the开机 rate is improving. The basis is stable, and there are opportunities for bottom - fishing long positions [12]. Pork - The current pig breeding profit is low, and the market capacity expansion is cautious. There is short - term bullish sentiment, but the 09 contract faces pressure above 14,500 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - Prices: On July 4, the price of Jiangsu first - grade palm oil was 8,190 yuan/ton, down 1.21% from the previous day; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil was 8,560 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The P2509 futures price was 8,472 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [1]. - Inventory: The palm oil warehouse receipts on July 4 were 22,977, up 1.23% from the previous day [1]. Soybean Oil - Prices: On July 4, the price of Jiangsu soybean oil was 9,830 yuan/ton, down 0.81% from the previous day; the 01509 futures price was 9,607 yuan/ton, down 0.12% [1]. - Inventory: The soybean oil warehouse receipts were 805, down from 100 the previous day [1]. Corn - Prices: The September 2025 corn futures price was 2,353 yuan/ton, down 0.42% from the previous day. The basis was 27 yuan/ton, up 58.82% [2]. - Inventory: The corn warehouse receipts were 204,318, down 2.68% from the previous day [2]. Sugar - Prices: The January 2026 sugar futures price was 5,598 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous day. The basis of Nanning was 462 yuan/ton [6]. - Production and Sales: The cumulative national sugar production was 1,116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year - on - year; the cumulative sales were 811.38 million tons, up 23.07% [6]. Cotton - Prices: The September 2025 cotton futures price was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 0.04% from the previous day. The ICE US cotton price was 68.43 cents/pound, down 0.31% [9]. - Inventory: The commercial inventory was 345.87 million tons, down 9.6% month - on - month [9]. Eggs - Prices: The September 2025 egg futures price was 3,686 yuan/500KG, down 0.11% from the previous day. The basis was - 976 yuan/500KG, down 1.51% [10]. - Related Prices: The egg - chicken feed ratio was 2.24, down 3.86% from the previous day [10]. Meal - Prices: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal was 2,820 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day. The M2509 futures price was 2,954 yuan/ton, down 0.14% [12]. - Inventory: The soybean meal warehouse receipts were 40,280, down 0.0% from the previous day [12]. Pork - Prices: The September 2025 pork futures price was 14,305 yuan/ton, down 0.45% from the previous day. The basis of Henan was 895 yuan/ton [14]. - Related Data: The daily slaughter volume was 133,839, down 0.37% from the previous day [14].