Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Copper - Short - term copper prices may experience volatile adjustments, with the main contract referring to the range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton. The core drivers of price increase, such as interest - rate cut expectations and the 232 investigation, are showing signs of weakening, and concerns about tariff policies are also pressuring copper prices [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 2,750 - 3,150 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 20,800 yuan/ton resistance level [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The market for aluminum alloy is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract referring to the range of 19,200 - 20,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and demand is the main constraining factor [5]. Zinc - Short - term zinc prices have rebounded, but the fundamentals have not improved substantially. In the medium - to - long term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, with the main contract referring to the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment provides support, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly [9]. Tin - Short - term tin prices are expected to be strong and volatile, but considering the pessimistic demand outlook, a short - selling strategy on rallies based on supply - side recovery, inventory, and import data inflection points is recommended [10]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with the main contract referring to the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Although the macro environment has improved trading sentiment, the fundamentals still face pressure [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be range - bound in the short term. First, observe the performance around 65,000 yuan/ton. The short - term fundamentals still face pressure, and there is a contradiction between market sentiment and fundamentals [16]. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 445 yuan/ton to 80,535 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.55%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium remained unchanged at 115 yuan/ton [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread between 2507 and 2508 contracts increased by 40 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In June, electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34 million tons or 0.30%. In May, electrolytic copper imports were 253,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,100 tons or 1.23% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spreads - SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 20,770 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.43%. The SMM A00 aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In June, alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,000 tons or 0.19%. In June, electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons or 3.22% [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spreads - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 20,100 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In May, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 606,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.66%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons or 0.38% [5]. Zinc Price and Spreads - SMM 0 zinc ingot price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 22,410 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.09%. The premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 90 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In June, refined zinc production was 585,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35,700 tons or 6.50%. In May, refined zinc imports were 26,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons or 5.36% [7]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 900 yuan/ton to 123,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.73%. The price of 1 Sichuan nickel increased by 800 yuan/ton to 124,550 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.65% [9]. Fundamental Data - The production and import volume of refined nickel were both 0, and the month - on - month change was DIV/0! [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 267,300 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.45%. The SMM 1 tin premium remained unchanged at 650 yuan/ton [10]. Fundamental Data - In May, tin ore imports were 13,449 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,588 tons or 36.39%. SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 360 tons or 2.37% [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 50 yuan/ton to 12,750 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.39%. The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,650 yuan/ton [13]. Fundamental Data - In April (43 companies), the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China was 1.7133 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,300 tons or 3.83%. The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 360,000 tons, with no change [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 62,300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.32%. SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 60,700 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.33% [16]. Fundamental Data - In June, lithium carbonate production was 78,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,010 tons or 8.34%. The demand for lithium carbonate in June was 93,815 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145 tons or 0.15% [16].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250707
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-07-07 06:49