瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250707

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 7, the SM2509 contract closed at 5,646 yuan/ton, down 0.77%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia ferromanganese was reported at 5,520 yuan/ton. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting emphasized eliminating backward production capacity and anti - involution. The factory's operating rate has rebounded for 6 consecutive weeks at a low level, and the overall inventory remains high. The port inventory of imported manganese ore increased by 26,000 tons this period, and the downstream hot metal production is running at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 150 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 170 yuan/ton. Steel mills' procurement is cautious, and the tender price continues to decline. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. - On July 7, the SF2509 contract closed at 5,364 yuan/ton, down 0.74%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5,250 yuan/ton. Trump said that the new tariffs will "most likely" take effect on August 1. The operating rate is running at a low level. The cost of Ningxia semi - coke has decreased, and the steel demand expectation is still weak overall. The current production profit of ferroalloys is negative. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 330 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it is - 150 yuan/ton. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is between the 20 and 60 moving averages, and the market should be treated as a volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5,646元/吨，较昨日下跌2元；SF主力合约收盘价为5,364元/吨，较昨日持平 [2]。 - SM期货合约持仓量为587,310手，较昨日减少2,318手；SF期货合约持仓量为405,006手，较昨日减少308手 [2]。 - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 34,158手，较昨日增加144手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 45,631手，较昨日减少3,557手 [2]。 - SM1 - 9月合约价差为52元/吨，较昨日增加8元；SF1 - 9月合约价差为12元/吨，较昨日增加12元 [2]。 - SM仓单为88,213张，较昨日减少473张；SF仓单为12,587张，较昨日增加310张 [2]。 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,520元/吨，较昨日下跌30元；贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,520元/吨，较昨日下跌30元；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,500元/吨，较昨日持平 [2]。 - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,270元/吨，较昨日下跌30元；青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,200元/吨，较昨日持平；宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,250元/吨，较昨日下跌30元 [2]。 - 锰硅指数均值为5,531元/吨，较上周增加41元；SF主力合约基差为 - 114元/吨，较昨日下跌30元；SM主力合约基差为 - 126元/吨，较昨日下跌28元 [2]。 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为35元/吨度，较昨日持平；硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，较昨日持平 [2]。 - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为850元/吨，较昨日持平；兰炭（中料神木）价格为640元/吨，较昨日持平 [2]。 - 锰矿港口库存为425万吨，较上周增加2.6万吨 [2]。 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为40.34%，较上周增加1.13个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为31.95%，较上周增加0.25个百分点 [2]。 - 锰硅供应为180,110吨，较上周增加875吨；硅铁供应为100,200吨，较上周增加2,700吨 [2]。 - 锰硅厂家库存为222,300吨，较半月前增加500吨；硅铁厂家库存为6.7万吨，较半月前减少0.24万吨 [2]。 - 锰硅全国钢厂库存可用天数为15.15天，较上月减少0.29天；硅铁全国钢厂库存可用天数为15.20天，较上月减少0.24天 [2]。 3.5 Downstream Situation - 五大钢种锰硅需求为126,789吨，较上周增加908吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为20,481.7吨，较上周增加127.5吨 [2]。 - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.44%，较上周下降0.4个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.27%，较上周下降0.58个百分点 [2]。 - 粗钢产量为8,654.5万吨，较上月增加52.6万吨 [2]。 3.6 Industry News - 当地时间7月4日，美国总统特朗普表示美国政府将从当天起致函贸易伙伴设定新的单边关税税率，新关税“十有八九”从8月1日开始生效，关税税率可能在60%、70%到10%、20%不等 [2]。 - 中国物流与采购联合会称6月份全球制造业采购经理指数为49.5%，较上月上升0.3个百分点，连续两个月环比上升 [2]。 - 印度4日向世界贸易组织通报，因美国对汽车及零部件加征关税冲击印度出口，印度计划对美国征收报复性关税 [2]。 - 美国总统特朗普当地时间7月4日签署“大而美”税收和支出法案，提前终止多项清洁能源税收抵免，而油气等传统能源获大幅倾斜 [2]。