瑞达期货沪镍产业日报-20250707

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals show that the Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the port inventory of domestic nickel ore has decreased, and the raw materials are in a tight situation. - On the smelting side, the current high raw material prices and the downward trend of nickel prices have led to profit losses for other smelters, and some non - integrated smelters have chosen to reduce production. - On the demand side, the profit of stainless steel plants has been compressed, and the 300 - series has reduced production. The demand for new energy vehicles continues to rise, but its proportion is small and the impact is limited. - Recently, both supply and demand are weak. Downstream enterprises purchase on demand, and domestic inventory has decreased, while overseas inventory remains stable. - Technically, the position has decreased. Pay attention to the support of MA10, and it is expected to have a short - term strong adjustment. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or go long lightly on dips [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 120,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,730 yuan/ton. The 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai nickel is - 140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,260 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 95 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 69,366 lots, a decrease of 441 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 6,296 lots, a decrease of 1,846 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 202,470 tons, unchanged. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 24,922 tons, an increase of 204 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 8,502 tons, unchanged. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,832 tons, a decrease of 227 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,450 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 121,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,550 yuan/ton. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 280 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 189.09 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.61 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 392.72 million tons, an increase of 101.31 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 871.84 million tons, an increase of 112.61 million tons. - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 73.42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.44 US dollars/ton. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron output is 2.39 million metal tons, an increase of 0.22 million metal tons. - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 84.82 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons [3]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 178.47 million tons, a decrease of 3.96 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.35 million tons [3]. 3.6行业消息 - US President Trump said that starting from July 4, the US government will issue notices of new tariff rates to countries that have not reached trade agreements, with the tariff range from 10% to 70%, and plans to officially implement them from August 1. The upper limit of this tariff rate (70%) is much higher than the 50% announced in April. - Data from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing shows that the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the continuous small increase for two months reflects that the recovery strength of the global economy has rebounded [3].