瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20250707

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate still show a situation of excessive supply and weak demand for now, but the industry expectations have improved, and the supply - demand situation may gradually improve [2]. - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call position dominant and the implied volatility slightly decreasing [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging [2]. - The operation suggestion is to conduct short - selling transactions on rallies with a light position and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 63,660 yuan/ton, up 380 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 79,406 hands, up 3,550 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 322,535 hands, down 2,753 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 80 yuan/ton, down 440 yuan; the warehouse receipts on GEA are 21,036 hands/ton, down 1,844 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,550 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,950 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 1,110 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 696 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 1,655 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly production of lithium carbonate is 42,100 tons, down 5,800 tons; the monthly import volume is 21,145.78 tons, down 7,190.11 tons; the monthly export volume is 286.74 tons, down 447.55 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 6 percentage points; the monthly production of power batteries is 123,500 MWh, up 5,300 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 28,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 218,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 144,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 120,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 125,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 55%, up 2 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly production of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 1,270,000 vehicles, up 19,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 1,307,000 vehicles, up 81,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (CPCA) is 43.99%, up 1.25 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase are 5,608,000 vehicles, up 1,713,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 212,000 vehicles, up 12,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase are 855,000 vehicles, up 336,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 21.65%, up 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 24.77%, down 0.46 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 188,165 contracts, up 10,192 contracts; the total put position is 100,314 contracts, down 1,986 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position is 53.31%, down 4.1689 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.22%, down 0.0065 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - GGII: From January to May, the cumulative global sales of new energy vehicles were 6.975 million, a year - on - year increase of 28%, driving the global power battery installed capacity to about 369.8 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 35%. China's power battery installed capacity accounted for 61.4% of the global share, and six of the top ten enterprises were from China [2]. - According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, in May 2025, the transaction volume of the national second - hand car market was 1.604 million, a month - on - month decrease of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 1.2%, and the transaction amount was 103 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. From January to May, the cumulative transaction volume of second - hand cars was 7.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the transaction amount was 516.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.1% [2]. - According to the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index in June was 49.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, rising month - on - month for two consecutive months. Although the index is still in the contraction range, the consecutive two - month slight increase reflects that the global economic recovery strength has rebounded [2]. - The US House of Representatives passed a comprehensive tax and expenditure reform bill led by President Trump. The major adjustment of the subsidy mechanism for electric vehicles (EV) has attracted wide market attention. The $7,500 federal tax credit for new cars and the $4,000 credit for second - hand cars will officially end on September 30, which is expected to have a profound impact on the US new energy vehicle market [2].