Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Global natural rubber production areas are gradually starting to tap rubber. In the Yunnan production area, there are still weather disturbances, with high raw material purchase prices. In the Hainan production area, due to continuous precipitation, the rubber - tapping operation has recovered slowly, and the raw material supply is limited. The overall supply is affected [2]. - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has shown a slight increase. The bonded warehouse is in a state of destocking, while the general trade inventory has a narrowing increase. Overseas supplies arriving at the port and entering the warehouse have decreased month - on - month, and the downstream demand has weakened [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements, and some enterprises reduced their production loads. This week, as the maintenance of enterprises gradually ends, production will gradually recover, which will drive the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises [2][3]. - The RU2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,800 - 14,200 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the NR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,950 - 12,200 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 13,970 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 875 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,040 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; the 8 - 9 spread is 10 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 1,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 153,660 lots, up 827 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 32,672 lots, down 1,047 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 21,393 lots, up 2,510 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 4,423 lots, up 1,688 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 188,820 tons, down 30 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 32,760 tons, up 3,024 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 13,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 13,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is 30 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 155 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,232 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 192 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 65.55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.11 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 62.52 Thai baht/kg, up 0.21 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.5 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 48.45 Thai baht/kg, down 0.1 Thai baht/kg [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 152.4 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 6.6 US dollars/ton, down 5.8 US dollars/ton [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 148,200 tons, down 38,600 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 222,300 tons, down 26,400 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.75%, down 1.89 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.41%, down 7.64 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 40.45 days, down 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.48 days, down 1.67 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.18%, down 0.02 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.82%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.09%, down 0.17 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.09%, down 0.16 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In the first week of July 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The impact on rubber - tapping work in the northern part of the equator decreased slightly, while the impact in the southern part of the equator increased slightly [2]. - As of July 6, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 632,400 tons, up 300 tons, an increase of 0.05%. The bonded area inventory was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 2.36%; the general trade inventory was 553,600 tons, an increase of 0.40% [2]. - In June 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 92,000 vehicles, a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20250707
Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-07 09:31