Shanghai Ganglian(SZ:300226)2025-07-07 15:44Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the aluminum industry but provides insights into demand trends and expectations for growth in specific sectors [1][3]. Core Insights - Aluminum demand in the solar power industry is expected to increase by 5-8% year-over-year (YoY) in 2025, despite a recent decline in demand since mid-May [1][4]. - Overall aluminum demand in China is projected to grow by 3-4% YoY in 2025, with a weaker growth forecast for the second half of the year compared to the first half [3]. - The demand for aluminum building profiles is anticipated to decrease by 8-10% YoY in 2025, showing a slight improvement from a 10% YoY decrease in 2024 [5]. Summary by Sections Aluminum Production - The weekly semi-aluminum products output was approximately 610kt in early July 2025, reflecting a 7.5% YoY increase, while the aluminum profile output was around 190kt, down 6% YoY [2]. - The weekly aluminum foil sheet output was about 370kt, showing a slight decline of 1% YoY [2]. Demand Trends - The aluminum demand from the solar power industry is primarily for industrial profiles and foil sheets, with a noted decrease in demand since mid-May, which has slowed into July [1][4]. - The apparent consumption of aluminum is expected to remain weak in July but may rebound in September and October, with potential growth in the automotive and electricity sectors [3]. Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels for aluminum profile mills are around 520kt, which is a 20% decrease YoY, with raw materials and finished goods inventories down 18% and 21% YoY, respectively [6].