瑞银：中国太阳能行业_加大力度应对内卷竞争

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the solar industry, but it suggests that polysilicon and module names could exhibit the highest potential upside within the sector due to inexpensive valuation and limited downside risks [4]. Core Insights - The solar glass manufacturers in China are beginning to cut production due to persistently weakening demand, with estimates suggesting a reasonable production cut of 10-20%, leading to an effective monthly production of around 45-50GW [2]. - The government is expected to push for capacity cuts across the solar supply chain, starting with the polysilicon segment, and discussions are ongoing regarding acquiring smaller players [3]. - There is a stronger commitment from the government to tackle overcapacity, with expectations of more policy support to phase out obsolete capacity and deter price competition, despite lingering fundamental pressures in the second half of 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Production and Demand - Solar glass manufacturers are cutting production due to weak demand, with a potential cut of 10-20% rather than the 30% estimated by some media [2]. - The effective production capacity could be around 45-50GW monthly, with the possibility of resuming operations once prices rebound [2]. Government Policies - The government is anticipated to implement capacity cuts in the solar supply chain, particularly in the polysilicon segment, and is discussing measures to acquire smaller players [3]. - There is speculation about policies to curb excess capacity, with a belief that the government is determined to reduce involution competition [4]. Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite expected fundamental pressures in the second half of 2025, market sentiment may improve in the long term due to better supply-demand dynamics [4]. - Polysilicon and module names are highlighted as having the highest potential upside within the sector, attributed to inexpensive valuations and limited downside risks [4].