摩根士丹利：2025 年第二季度_中国数据走弱，但预计持续的有机韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Testing space for 2025, with Bureau Veritas and SGS rated as preferred Overweights [6][18]. Core Insights - The Testing, Inspection, and Certification (TIC) sector is expected to achieve organic growth in line with FY25 guidance, with a consensus forecast of 5-7% organic growth and 40-50 basis points margin expansion across the TIC3 in 2025 [6][12]. - Despite a significant decline in China exports to the US in April (-21%) and May (-34%), the organic growth of the TIC sector has remained resilient, decoupling from traditional indicators such as GDP growth and patent applications [27][31]. - The report identifies 22 megatrends that could drive organic performance in the Testing sector through 2030, with Bureau Veritas and SGS positioned to capitalize on these trends [18][19]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global TIC market is forecasted to grow at a mid-single-digit rate to 2030, driven by increasing regulation and demand for testing solutions [12][14]. - The organic growth rates of testing companies have decoupled from GDP growth since 2021, with expectations of sustained GDP+ organic growth driven by regulatory demands [12][18]. Company Performance - Bureau Veritas has reported the highest average organic growth since the pandemic, while Intertek has shown the lowest group organic growth due to its higher consumer exposure [56]. - For FY25, Bureau Veritas guides to mid to high single-digit organic growth, SGS to 5-7%, and Intertek to mid-single digits [56]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include testing megatrends, increased regulation, supply chain assurance, AI-enabled products, and ESG regulation [56]. - The report highlights the potential for high-single-digit to low-double-digit organic revenue growth in the Certification/Assurance division due to changes in the ESG reporting landscape [42]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - Bureau Veritas has a market capitalization of €12.5 billion ($14.8 billion) with a revenue of €6,241 million and an EBITA margin of 16.0% [59]. - The report provides a valuation snapshot, indicating that Bureau Veritas is expected to have an EV/EBITDA of 10.9x in 2025, while SGS is projected at 10.3x [58].