瑞银：中国经济_强劲的第二季度增长，未来仍有更多逆风

Investment Rating - The report indicates a robust GDP growth forecast for Q2, with expectations of 5.0-5.2% YoY growth, despite anticipated headwinds in H2 [4][32]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector shows signs of improvement, with NBS manufacturing PMI rising to 49.7 and Caixin PMI increasing to 50.4 in June, indicating a less negative growth momentum [7][10]. - Property sales continue to decline significantly, with 30-city property sales down 10% YoY in June, and top 100 developers' contract sales volume decreasing by 35% YoY [9][19]. - Retail sales growth is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in June, influenced by a low base and earlier promotional activities [23]. - Infrastructure investment growth is projected to cool to 6% YoY due to a high base effect, while overall fixed asset investment (FAI) growth is anticipated at 3% YoY [20][32]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - Q2 GDP growth is expected to remain robust at 5.0-5.2% YoY, supported by front-loading of exports and earlier government stimulus [4][32]. - CPI is projected to edge up marginally to 0% YoY, while PPI remains in deep deflation at -3.3% YoY [3][29]. Manufacturing Sector - NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2ppt to 49.7, with improvements in new orders and production indices [7][10]. - Caixin manufacturing PMI rose by 2.1ppt to 50.4, indicating stronger production and new orders [7][10]. Property Market - 30-city property sales declined further to -10% YoY in June, with significant drops in both tier 1 and tier 3 cities [9][19]. - The contract sales volume of the top 100 developers fell by 35% YoY in June, reflecting ongoing challenges in the property sector [9][19]. Retail and Consumer Trends - Retail sales growth is expected to moderate to 6% YoY in June, influenced by earlier promotional activities and a low base [23]. - Auto retail sales growth picked up to 24% YoY in June, driven by trade-in subsidies and a low base effect [38]. Investment and Infrastructure - Overall FAI growth is projected at 3% YoY in June, with infrastructure investment cooling to 6% YoY due to a high base [20][32]. - Manufacturing investment growth is expected to hold up at 7-8% YoY, supported by fiscal subsidies for equipment upgrading [20].