花旗：中国材料_2025 年实地需求监测系列 - 铝库存与消费

Investment Rating - The latest sector pecking order for investment is aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] Core Insights - Market expectations on demand recovery for aluminum in China remain cautious, with production data showing a flat week-over-week (WoW) performance but a 2% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 26 to July 2, 2025, was 844kt, with aluminum billet production at 349kt, reflecting a 2% decrease WoW but an 8% increase YoY [1][2] - The year-to-date (YTD) aluminum production in China reached 22.6 million tonnes (mnt), marking a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 9.1mnt, up 6.4% YoY [1] Production Summary - Total aluminum production in China was 844kt for the week, flat WoW, and up 2% YoY [1] - Aluminum billet production was 349kt, down 2% WoW, but up 8% YoY [1] - YTD aluminum production was 22.6mnt, with a 3.2% YoY increase [1] Inventory Summary - Total aluminum ingot and billet inventory in China was 773kt on July 3, 2025, reflecting a 3% increase WoW but a 33% decrease YoY [2] - The inventory of aluminum ingot was 517kt, up 2% WoW and down 41% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 256kt, up 5% WoW and down 8% YoY [2] Consumption Summary - Overall aluminum apparent consumption in China was 833kt for the week, flat WoW and down 1% YoY [3] - Aluminum ingot apparent consumption was 864kt, flat WoW, and up 4% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 318kt, down 2% WoW and down 4% YoY [3] - YTD overall aluminum apparent consumption was 23.3mnt, with a 5.7% YoY increase [3]