摩根士丹利：美国股票策略_策略数据包 -2025 年 7 月

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook for the equity market over a 6-12 month horizon, anticipating a recovery in earnings and favorable monetary policy shifts [5]. Core Insights - The equity markets have shown resilience since hitting lows in April 2025, with a rally driven by fundamental factors rather than speculation [5]. - Earnings revisions breadth has improved, currently at -5%, up from a trough of -25% in mid-April, supporting the rise in equity prices [5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates seven times in 2026, which will likely provide a tailwind for equity valuations in the second half of 2025 [5]. - Historical data indicates strong equity performance during Fed cutting cycles, even if the market begins to price in these cuts ahead of time [5]. Summary by Sections Narrative - The report suggests that the current economic environment is characterized by a boom-bust cycle, with expectations for a hotter but shorter cycle ahead [11][15]. Earnings & Valuation - The S&P 500's earnings per share (EPS) targets for 2025 are projected at $259, with a potential increase to $283 in 2026 [39]. - The report highlights that the market has priced in a strong rebound, with leading economic indicators showing signs of recovery since mid-2023 [22][51]. Sector Views - Financials are rated overweight due to average relative valuation levels and potential for earnings revisions to improve [40][91]. - Industrials are also rated overweight, benefiting from domestic infrastructure initiatives and a recent bottoming in earnings revisions [105]. - Energy stocks are considered undervalued relative to oil prices, presenting an opportunity for investment [106]. Macro & Miscellaneous - The report notes that the equity risk premium remains historically low, indicating potential for equity market growth [60]. - The dispersion of returns has returned to median levels, suggesting a normalization in market behavior [78].