花旗：中国物流行业_快递价格接近底部，看好规模和利润率扩张方面的小型企业

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to J&T, STO, ZTO, and YTO, while Yunda is rated as "Sell" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that pricing dynamics in China's parcel industry are stabilizing, with expectations of a 12% earnings CAGR for the sector from 2024 to 2027, driven by a 14% volume CAGR and a 3% annual drop in average selling price (ASP) [2][8]. - Smaller companies like J&T and STO are expected to outperform larger competitors in terms of market share and margin expansion due to their cheaper offerings and operational leverage [2][4]. Summary by Sections Pricing Dynamics - Delivery prices are believed to have bottomed out, with many franchisees reporting losses and expecting price hikes in the latter half of the year [3][11]. - The average ASP for Tongda companies fell approximately 7% year-over-year from January to May, but a stabilization is anticipated [8][11]. Earnings Forecasts - The report forecasts significant earnings growth for J&T and STO, with expected EPS CAGRs of 92% and 15% respectively from 2024 to 2027 [2][4]. - Adjustments to earnings estimates for 2025-2027 reflect a reduction of 0%-54% across Tongda companies, primarily due to pricing pressures [4]. Market Share and Competitive Landscape - J&T and STO are projected to gain a total of 4 percentage points in market share from 2025 to 2027, while other Tongda companies are expected to lose 2 percentage points [4][8]. - The report indicates that lower-tier firms are likely to capture more market share as they improve unit economics and pricing strategies [8][94]. Valuation Insights - Current PE multiples for J&T and STO are considered undervalued at 9x and 12x for 2026E, respectively, compared to the expected industry average of 15x [2][5]. - The report highlights that Tongda firms are trading near historical lows, suggesting that a stabilizing pricing environment could lead to a re-rating of multiples [8][110]. Demand Drivers - The parcel volume in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10% from 2024 to 2029, driven by consumption downtrading and government initiatives to stimulate domestic consumption [62][84]. - The report anticipates a 16.5% year-over-year growth in parcel volume for the current year, with strong growth momentum continuing [62][63].