花旗：GPUvsAI ASIC-不只是芯片设计，互操作性和系统集成是关键

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for MediaTek and a "Neutral" rating for Alchip, while downgrading GUC to "Sell/H" [5][43][52]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the increasing importance of system integration and interoperability in the semiconductor industry, particularly for AI ASICs and GPUs. It highlights that successful chip design alone is insufficient; cohesive and scalable systems are crucial for performance [1][9][18]. - The transition of AI chips from N5/4 to N3 nodes is expected to significantly increase average selling prices (ASP) and computing capabilities, despite a slowdown in overall AI chip shipment growth [2][16]. - Nvidia continues to dominate the AI server market, holding over 80% of market value, while Broadcom leads in the ASIC market driven by its Google TPUs [23][36]. Summary by Sections AI ASIC Market Dynamics - Broadcom holds the largest market share in the ASIC market, with stable trends expected for TPU v7 and growth anticipated for TPU v8 in late 2026 [3][36]. - The report estimates that AI ASIC shipments from major cloud service providers (CSPs) will reach approximately 4.5 million units in 2026, which is lower than consensus estimates [2][23]. System Integration and Design - The report stresses the need for advanced system design capabilities, including thermal management and network fabric design, to support the growing complexity of AI workloads [18][22]. - It notes that developing an HPC AI ASIC can take 3-4 years, necessitating partnerships with experienced semiconductor makers to expedite the process [20][22]. Company-Specific Insights - MediaTek is highlighted as a preferred choice due to its design expertise and expected revenue contributions from AI ASICs starting in late 2026 [5][43][45]. - Alchip's contribution is expected to begin in 2H26, with a cautious outlook due to potential redesign delays [52][53]. Financial Projections - The report provides revised financial estimates for MediaTek, projecting a revenue of NT$588.85 billion for 2025, with a YoY growth of 11% [46]. - Alchip's financial outlook is less optimistic, with a projected revenue of NT$41.96 billion for 2025, reflecting a decline [52][53].