摩根士丹利：中国云半导体-前景更加光明

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight (OW) rating on Aspeed Technology and Montage Technology, with a price target for Aspeed raised to NT$6,100 [6][38][45]. Core Insights - The outlook for cloud semiconductors is improving, particularly with the anticipated mass production of key components for Rubin architecture starting in Q2 2026, which is expected to enhance growth in the sector [3][10]. - ASIC servers are projected to see significant growth, with estimates suggesting that ASIC BMC could account for 5-10% of global shipments in 2026, driven by lower upfront costs and increased demand from major cloud service providers [4][10]. - Demand for storage servers has strengthened since Q4 2024, particularly from top cloud service providers in the US and China, indicating a robust market environment [4][10]. Summary by Sections Market Outlook - The 2026 GPU server outlook is becoming clearer, with increased supply chain engagement for Rubin racks and a potential mix of architectures that could mitigate supply chain risks [3][10]. - The report highlights a positive near-term outlook for non-rack servers and anticipates continued growth in cloud capital expenditures, with a projected 43% year-over-year growth in 2025 [20][21]. Company Performance - Aspeed reported June revenue of NT$782 million, with Q2 revenue reaching NT$2.2 billion, exceeding company guidance by 15% [6][29]. - Earnings estimates for Aspeed have been revised upward by 6%, 6%, and 10% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting higher BMC shipment forecasts and increased demand for IO expanders [29][32]. Financial Projections - The report projects total revenues for Aspeed to reach NT$8.410 billion in 2025, NT$10.060 billion in 2026, and NT$12.983 billion in 2027, with significant year-over-year growth rates [54]. - The gross margin for Aspeed is expected to improve to 66% in 2025, with operating income projected to increase to NT$4.200 billion [54][55]. Valuation Methodology - The price target increase for Aspeed from NT$5,000 to NT$6,100 is based on higher EPS estimates and an increased growth rate assumption from 17.2% to 18.5% [32][38]. - The new price target implies a forward P/E ratio of 51x for 2026, which is considered justifiable given the improving demand dynamics in the market [32][40].