建信期货生猪日报-20250708

General Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report [1] - Report Date: July 8, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The demand for pigs is in the off - season. The previous continuous pressure on pigs and reduced sales by enterprises continue to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. However, as the group's sales volume gradually recovers, the price is回调. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is expected to increase. Around the middle and late July, group - owned breeding enterprises may increase the volume of sales to meet the monthly sales target, and pig prices may be under pressure due to the off - season of consumption [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 7th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and then fell in a volatile manner, closing with a negative line. The highest was 14,310 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,205 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,245 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 2,324 lots to 161,386 lots [8] - Spot Market: On the 7th, the average price of三元 outside the country was 14.87 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] - Market Analysis: On the demand side, the price difference between fat and standard pigs remains low, the utilization rate of pigsty is relatively high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening to replenish stocks is low, and only a small amount enters the market. With the rise in temperature, terminal demand weakens, slaughter enterprise orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises remain low. On the supply side, the planned sales volume of sample enterprises in July decreased by 1.19% month - on - month compared with June, and the sales volume may be slightly reduced. The sales volume of groups is gradually recovering, and the average weight of pigs for sale is slightly decreasing, but there are still secondary - fattened pigs to be sold in the future [9] 2. Industry News - As of the week ending July 3, the profit per head from self - breeding and self - fattening was 171.09 yuan, an increase of 54.48 yuan per head compared with the previous week. The profit per head from purchasing piglets for fattening was 14.15 yuan, an increase of 16.71 yuan per head compared with the previous week [10][12] 3. Data Overview - The average sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the market in the week ending July 3 was 530 yuan/head, remaining the same as the previous week [21] - In the week ending July 3, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.5608 million heads, a decrease of 125,900 heads compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. The average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 139,029 heads, a decrease of 5,040 heads compared with the previous week, with an average daily decrease of 3.50%. The slaughter volume on Thursday of this week was 134,338 heads, a decrease of 7,789 heads compared with Thursday of the previous week, a decrease of 5.48% [21] - As of the week ending July 3, the average weight of pigs for sale nationwide was 128.64 kg, an increase of 0.50 kg compared with the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, and an increase of 2.93 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.33% [21]