建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250708

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7232 | 7220 | 7246 | 7204 | -52 | -0.72% | 113848 | 7043 | | Plastic 2605 | 7219 | 7197 | 7221 | 7188 | -69 | -0.95% | 1781 | 197 | | Plastic 2509 | 7272 | 7247 | 7277 | 7229 | -61 | -0.83% | 448912 | 231 | | PP2601 | 7042 | 7021 | 7049 | 7009 | -32 | -0.45% | 110370 | 2632 | | PP2605 | 7016 | 7008 | 7016 | 7007 | -35 | -0.50% | 3713 | 45 | | PP2509 | 7074 | 7057 | 7082 | 7043 | -34 | -0.48% | 405039 | -9584 | [5] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - Futures Market: The futures market opened low and oscillated weakly, dampening the trading atmosphere. Some factory prices were lowered, and traders quoted prices according to the market. End - users mainly replenished at low prices. New production capacities are being put into operation, and the intensity of device overhauls is weakening, so the supply side is under pressure. In July, there are plans to put into operation the fourth line of Yulong Petrochemical and the first line of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical for PP, and the second - phase HDPE of Jilin Petrochemical. The overall supply pressure is increasing. The demand is in the off - season and lacks support. Downstream enterprises mostly maintain a low - inventory strategy, and the supply - demand margin is deteriorating, with a unilateral weak downward trend [6] Group 5: Industry News - Inventory: On July 7, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a stockpiling of 70,000 tons compared with the previous working day, an increase of 9.86%. The inventory in the same period last year was 795,000 tons. - PE Market: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7230 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7350 - 7550 yuan/ton. - Propylene Market: The propylene price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea declined. As of the close, the mainstream price on the west coast of the Yellow Sea was 6370 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price in Lianyungang was 6410 yuan/ton. Some PDH plants in the north are expected to restart, the supply side is bearish, downstream enterprises are waiting and watching, the cross - regional arbitrage space across the west of the Yellow Sea is limited, and the overall trading atmosphere is poor. - PP Market: The PP market declined slightly, with a decline range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. Most traders mainly sold at reduced prices according to their own situations. The follow - up of new downstream orders was insufficient, and the intention to enter the market was mediocre. The overall trading was average. In the morning, the mainstream price of drawn PP in North China was 7020 - 7120 yuan/ton, in East China was 7020 - 7200 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7060 - 7250 yuan/ton. [7] Group 6: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]