建信期货股指日评-20250708

Report Overview - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: July 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The upper limit of the stock index is limited due to the decline in trading volume and the weak economic recovery in China. It is recommended to add positions after a pullback [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Outlook 1.1 Market Review - On July 7, the Wind All A index fluctuated after opening and rebounded in the afternoon, closing down 0.03%. Over 60% of individual stocks rose. Among the index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 closed down 0.43%, 0.33%, and 0.19% respectively, while the CSI 1000 closed up 0.24%, indicating better performance of small and medium - cap stocks. The performance of index futures was generally weaker than that of the spot [6] 1.2 Outlook - Externally, the 90 - day suspension period is about to end, and attention should be paid to the impact of US news on the market. The expectation of a rate cut in July has faded, and the market expects the rate - cut process to resume in September. Domestically, the economy is still in a weak recovery state, expected to be high in the first half and low in the second half of the year. The export data in the first half showed resilience, but there is high uncertainty in the second half, which may drag down the economy. The real estate market is still at the bottom, and the manufacturing industry is facing intensified competition. Domestic economic growth requires further stimulation of domestic demand and accelerated implementation of infrastructure investment. Attention should also be paid to whether policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [7] 2. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including domestic main index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance, trading volume of the Wind All A index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, and statistics of major ETF fund shares and trading volume, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][16][17] 3. Industry News - On the morning of July 7, Trump announced on his social account that the US would start sending tariff letters and/or agreements to other countries at 12:00 noon EST (00:00 Beijing time on July 8). Trump signed tariff notice letters to 12 countries on Friday, outlining different tariff rates for goods exported to the US. The new tariff rates may range from 10% to 20%, up to 60% - 70% [30]