贵金属日评-20250708

Report Overview - Report Date: July 8, 2025 - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Review - Research Team: Macro Finance Team of Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The passage of the $3.4 trillion Big Beauty Act by the US Congress and better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls data in the US have suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pushed up the US dollar index, and pressured precious metal prices. However, Trump's 2.0 new policy has boosted the safe - haven demand for gold. Although gold's short - term trend may be weak, its medium - term upward trend remains intact [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the uncertainties of Trump's new policy, along with weak global economic growth and geopolitical risks, will continue to support the long - and medium - term bull market for gold. But high price levels also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation pressure on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The US Congress passing the Big Beauty Act and strong non - farm payrolls data have suppressed the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, pushing up the US dollar index and causing the London gold price to correct to around $3305 per ounce during the Asian session on the 7th. It may continue to be weak in the short term [4]. - Trump's 2.0 new policy has boosted gold's safe - haven demand. Gold's volatility has increased, but its medium - term upward trend is good. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4]. - This week, attention should be paid to China's June financial data, the Fed's meeting minutes, and international trade situations [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Weakening trade situation concerns and a strong stock market rebound have reduced gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but other factors continue to support the price. South Asian and Middle Eastern geopolitical risks provide short - term upward momentum [5]. - In early June, speculative funds flooded into the silver and platinum markets, causing London silver to soar from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six trading days [5]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and Trump's new policy uncertainties will support gold's long - and medium - term bull markets. However, high price levels mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising US inflation on the Fed's interest rate cut timing in the third quarter. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, avoid full - position chasing and blind short - selling. Short - biased traders can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy [5]. 3.1.3 Market Data | Contract | Pre - closing Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 777.50 | 777.59 | 769.92 | 771.87 | - 0.72% | 399,160 | - 10,573 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,950 | 8,981 | 8,873 | 8,902 | - 0.53% | 898,973 | - 17,088 | | Gold T + D | 771.57 | 772.50 | 765.39 | 767.15 | - 0.57% | 228,910 | 8,254 | | Silver T + D | 8,885 | 8,935 | 8,830 | 8,858 | - 0.30% | 3,338,736 | 79,962 | [5] 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - to - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets. All data sources are Wind and Jianxin Futures Research and Development Department [7][9][11][13][15][16]. 3.3 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US is close to reaching several trade agreements before the July 9 deadline for higher tariffs, and the Trump administration will notify 100 small countries of higher tariffs. Trump has signed letters to 12 countries regarding different tariff levels, which will be sent on Monday [17]. - China's Ministry of Finance announced that starting from July 6, EU enterprises (excluding European - funded enterprises in China) will be excluded from participating in government procurement of medical devices with a budget of over 45 million yuan. This is a counter - measure in response to the EU's restrictions on Chinese enterprises [17]. - OPEC + agreed on Saturday to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, accelerating the production increase pace. Since April, OPEC + has increased production by 1.918 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of only 280,000 barrels per day in the 2.2 million barrels - per - day production cut [18].