芳烃橡胶早报-20250708

Group 1: PTA - The PTA spot daily average trading basis is 2509(+103). The Hainan Yisheng 2 million - ton plant increased its load. The near - term TA operation remained stable, polyester operation declined faster, inventory slightly accumulated, the basis weakened significantly, and the spot processing fee decreased. PX domestic maintenance was implemented, overseas plants in Japan and South Korea restarted, PXN weakened month - on - month, and the profits of disproportionation and isomerization shrank. TA has entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the slope depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. The short - term processing fee has limited further weakening space, and attention should be paid to the subsequent load reduction of filament [3]. Group 2: MEG - The MEG spot basis is around 09(+70). The Hainan Yisheng 2 million - ton plant increased its load. Near - term domestic coal - based MEG maintenance led to a slight decline in operation. Saudi plants had some unexpected situations, and port inventory decreased at the beginning of next week but is expected to accumulate again as arrivals increase during the week. The downstream inventory level increased, the basis remained stable, and the profit ratio was maintained. With no reduction in Iranian and ethane supply and the increase in domestic operation, it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. Considering the low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [11]. Group 3: Polyester Staple Fiber - The spot price is around 6702, and the market basis is around 08+50. The Jiangyin Huaxi reduced production, and the operation rate dropped to 93.0%. The sales - to - production ratio remained stable month - on - month, and inventory slightly accumulated. On the demand side, the operation of polyester yarn decreased, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory continued to accumulate. The profit remained at a low level, and the export of staple fiber maintained a high growth rate. The supply has not significantly decreased due to acceptable profit and inventory pressure, but the valuation has limited further upward space due to weak domestic demand. Attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts in the industry [11]. Group 4: Natural Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - The main contradiction is that the national explicit inventory remains stable at a relatively low absolute level but does not show seasonal decline, and the price of Thai cup rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting rubber tapping. The strategy is to wait and see [11]. Group 5: Styrene - From July 1 - 7, 2025, the price of ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 850, the price of pure benzene (CFR China) fluctuated slightly, and the price of styrene (CFR China) also changed. The domestic profit of styrene remained at 168 on July 7, while the profit of EPS and PS decreased [15].