大越期货贵金属早报-20250708

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Trump's latest tariff plan led to the selling of US stocks and bonds. With the early extension of the suspension period, the gold price first rose and then fell. The impact of tariffs will decline again, and the gold price is expected to be volatile. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to 2.3 yuan/gram. Although there have been recent news of additional tariffs in some regions, the gold price has shown limited reaction [4]. - Silver: Trump's latest tariff plan also affected silver. With the extension of the tariff suspension period, the silver price oscillated and closed down. It has returned to following the gold price, and the impact of tariffs has decreased. The silver price is expected to be weakly volatile. The premium of Shanghai silver remains at around 420 yuan/kg [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US stocks and bonds were sold due to Trump's tariff plan. The US three major stock indexes closed down across the board, European major stock indexes had mixed closing results, US bond yields rose collectively (the 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.56 basis points to 4.377%), the US dollar index rose 0.58% to 97.55, the offshore RMB depreciated against the US dollar to 7.1796, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.10% to $3346.40 per ounce. The gold basis was -4.4 (spot at a discount to futures), gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 3000 kg to 21456 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position increased [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, the silver price oscillated and closed down. COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% to $36.94 per ounce. The silver basis was -16 (spot at a discount to futures), the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 9051 kg to 1330695 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line above it, and the main net long position decreased [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [9]. - Silver: Silver still mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase. Factors such as global turmoil, rising US stagflation expectations, tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East, and tariff concerns are positive for silver. On the other hand, factors like the end of interest rate cuts, improved economic expectations, insufficient European fiscal expansion, and the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict are negative for silver [12][13]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Japan's May trade balance - 12:30: The Reserve Bank of Australia announces the interest rate decision - 13:30: RBA Governor Bullock holds a monetary policy press conference - Time TBD: EU finance ministers' meeting, with ECB Vice - President Guindos participating - 18:00: US June NFIB Small Business Optimism Index - 22:00: ECB Governing Council member and Bundesbank President Nagel speaks - 03:00 (next day): US May consumer credit [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold and Silver Price Movements: Various gold and silver futures and spot prices, as well as the US dollar index, showed different changes. For example, Shanghai gold 2510 fell 0.54%, Shanghai silver 2508 fell 0.50%, etc. [15]. - Price Spreads: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and the relationship between domestic and foreign spot prices are presented through charts [16][20]. - Market Sentiment Indicators: The 10 - year US bond yield rose 3.56 basis points to 4.377%, and the TIPS inflation expectation and other related data are shown [24]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 152 (0.08%) to 200,758, short positions increased by 181 (0.29%) to 62,978, and the net position decreased by 29 (-0.02%) to 137,780 [26][27]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 5,018 (-1.25%) to 397,792, short positions decreased by 5,409 (-1.65%) to 321,461, and the net position increased by 391 (0.51%) to 76,331 [28][29]. - ETF Positions: Gold ETF positions decreased slightly, while silver ETF positions oscillated and were higher than the same period in the past two years [31][34]. - Warehouse Receipts: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase, COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, Shanghai silver warehouse receipts changed to an increase and were higher than last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly [35][36][38].