大越期货白糖早报-20250708

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the Zhengzhou Sugar (SR) 09 contract is under pressure at the 5800 mark and is expected to experience short - term oscillatory decline. With domestic - produced sugar nearing clearance and the profit window for imported sugar opening, future sales will mainly focus on imported sugar. It suggests a bearish strategy for the 09 contract when prices approach 5800 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2. Daily Hints - Fundamentals: Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season. The USDA expects global sugar production to increase by 4.7% and consumption by 1.4% in the 25/26 season, resulting in a surplus of 1139.7 million tons. As of the end of May 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 811.38 million tons, and the sales rate was 72.69% (compared to 66.17% in the same period last year). In May 2025, China imported 35 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 33 million tons, and imported 6.42 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 15.07 million tons. This situation is considered bearish [4]. - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 6130, and the basis for the 09 contract is 376, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is considered bullish [6]. - Inventory: As of the end of May, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 304.83 million tons, which is considered bullish [6]. - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is considered bullish [6]. - Main Position: The position is bullish, with a net increase in long positions, but the main trend is unclear, which is considered bullish [6]. - Expectation: The SR 09 contract is under pressure at the 5800 mark and is expected to decline in the short - term. Domestic - produced sugar is about to be cleared, and the profit window for imported sugar is open. Future sales will mainly rely on imported sugar. A bearish strategy is recommended for the 09 contract when prices approach 5800 [5][9]. 3.3. Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Global Supply and Demand Forecast: Different institutions have varying forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply - demand balance. For example, Czarnikow predicts a 750 - million - ton surplus, Datagro predicts a 258 - million - ton surplus, and the USDA predicts a 1139.7 - million - ton surplus. The overall trend shows a shift from shortage to surplus, but institutional forecasts vary. The global production is expected to reach 2.02 billion tons (a record - high second), mainly driven by increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Global consumption is expected to be 1.98 billion tons, with Asia's demand increasing by 1.3% and Africa having the fastest growth rate at 2.2%. The supply - demand gap shows a surplus of 270 million tons [4][9][36]. - Domestic Data: As of May 2025, China's sugar - related data includes cumulative production, sales, sales rate, import volume, etc. The sales rate is higher than the same period last year, and the import volume of sugar has increased significantly year - on - year, while the import volume of syrup and premixed powder has decreased [4]. 3.5. Position Data The main position is bullish, with a net increase in long positions, but the main trend is unclear [6].