大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - PTA: Last week, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent. The current market supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and social inventory is at a relatively low level. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will still fluctuate and adjust following the cost side. After the rapid decline of the spot basis, the bottom - supporting effect may appear. In the short term, the PTA drive is weak, and the price will follow the cost fluctuation. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting results and polyester load fluctuations [5][6]. - MEG: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level, and the basis weakened slightly. The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the ethylene glycol disk is mainly under pressure. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price will be mainly sorted in a low range. Subsequently, pay attention to the return efficiency of the supply side and the change of the cost side [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - PTA: - Fundamental: In July, there is not much maintenance, and there is an expectation of the commissioning of the Sanfangxiang PTA device. The supply has increased year - on - year, while the terminal demand is in the off - season atmosphere. The inventory pressure of polyester factories has accumulated, and there is a downward expectation for polyester, which is negative for the PTA spot market. Recently, the spot market negotiation has been relatively light, and the basis is weak. It is expected that the short - term PTA drive is weak, and the price will follow the cost fluctuation. [6] - Basis: The spot price is 4790, the basis of the 09 contract is 80, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [6]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 3.95 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period, which is bullish [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - Main Position: The net short position is increasing, which is bearish [6]. - MEG: - Fundamental: On Monday, the price center of ethylene glycol oscillated at a low level, and the basis weakened slightly. The ethylene glycol supply - demand structure is gradually changing, with an obvious inventory accumulation expectation in the third quarter. The willingness of traders in the market to hold goods is poor. Due to the weakening supply - demand and the polyester off - season, the ethylene glycol disk is mainly under pressure. [7] - Basis: The spot price is 4347, the basis of the 09 contract is 68, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in the East China region is 53.2 tons, an increase of 2.73 tons compared with the previous period, which is bearish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - Main Position: The main net short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Influencing factors: - Bullish: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [8]. - Bearish: Iran confirmed a cease - fire. From the demand side, it is the end of the rush - to - export period and the domestic demand off - season, and the trend of weakening terminal demand is certain. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and after the disk rebounds, pay attention to the upper resistance level [9][10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, total supply, polyester consumption, and inventory changes [12]. - Price Data: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products from July 4 to July 7, 2025, as well as the changes in processing fees and profits [13]. - Inventory Analysis: It shows the inventory changes of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 [42][44][51]. - Operating Rate: It shows the operating rate changes of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [53][55][57][59]. - Profit: It shows the profit changes of PTA, MEG, polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament from 2022 to 2025 [61][64][66][68][69][70].