大越期货菜粕早报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain range - bound due to the influence of imported rapeseed inventory and soybean meal prices [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, with expectations of improved supply in the spot market and good demand. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russia's production. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish Factors: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - Main Logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25][26]. - Price and Transaction Data: It shows the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from June 26 to July 7, as well as the price difference between them. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from June 27 to July 7 are also presented, along with the change in rapeseed meal warehouse receipts during the same period [14][16][17]. - Inventory and Production Data: The import volume of rapeseed in July is lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has slightly decreased [27][29][31]. - Aquatic Product Data: The production and price data of Chinese aquatic products, including fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs, are mentioned. The price of aquatic fish has slightly fluctuated, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [33][35][39]. 5. Position Data No information provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamentals: Rapeseed meal has oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal prices and technical adjustments. Low rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and the peak season of short - term demand support the market, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%, which is bullish [9]. - Market: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main Position: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, as well as the influence of soybean meal prices [9].