Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4 ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, with eight member countries having already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump stated that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil inventories remained flat this week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of U.S. oil rigs dropped rapidly by July 4, and the U.S. fundamentals remained tight. Global refinery profits rebounded this week, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillation. WTI and Brent are stronger than Dubai, showing market differentiation. Absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - The U.S. Treasury issued a general license related to Venezuela, allowing liquefied petroleum gas loaded on or before July 7 to be unloaded before September 5 [3]. - Mizuho Securities analyst Robert Yawger pointed out that OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August indicates Saudi Arabia's confidence in market demand rather than an attempt to seize market share, as Saudi Aramco raised its crude oil selling price for the Asian market in August [3]. - In June, Russia's daily crude oil production was 9.022 million barrels, 28,000 barrels lower than its June production target, the largest gap this year, reflecting Russia's increased emphasis on production discipline [4]. - The U.S. Middle East envoy said that Iran talks would be held around next week, and Trump expressed his hope for the end of the Israel - Iran war and his willingness to lift sanctions on Iran at an appropriate time [4]. 3.2 Regional Fundamentals - In the week ending June 27, U.S. crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 13.433 million barrels per day [4]. - In the week ending June 27, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; and crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 975,000 barrels per day to 6.919 million barrels per day [3][4][5]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. refined oil products was 20.288 million barrels per day, a 1.12% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with both gasoline and diesel production rising at major refineries and falling at independent refineries. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries increased, and gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and that of local refineries improved month - on - month [5]. 3.3 Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" on July 4 ended support for solar and wind energy, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy [5]. - Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, with eight member countries having already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July [5]. - Trump said that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The U.S. Treasury imposed sanctions on Iraqi - related enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories remained flat this week. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, Cushing's inventories decreased, gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of U.S. oil rigs dropped rapidly by July 4, and the U.S. fundamentals remained tight [5]. - Global refinery profits rebounded this week, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillation. WTI and Brent are stronger than Dubai, showing market differentiation. Absolute prices face downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5].
原油成品油早报-20250708
Yong An Qi Huo·2025-07-08 02:52