大越期货甲醇早报-20250708

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The methanol market presents a complex situation with both bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, port methanol is expected to fluctuate due to inventory risks and macro - level support. Inland methanol is likely to move sideways due to factors such as supply - demand balance and downstream profit conditions. Overall, the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2509 trading between 2360 - 2430 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - The report analyzes the methanol market from multiple aspects including fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and main positions. It concludes that the methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, and continuous attention should be paid to port inventory, olefin procurement, and macro - level news [4]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production; Iranian methanol production has decreased and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has started production, and Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to start a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant later this month; northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there will be concentrated vessel arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season and MTBE production has significantly declined; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some plants in production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot price: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2415 yuan/ton, with a basis of 23 for the 09 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: As of June 26, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 534,100 tons, an increase of 84,600 tons from the previous period. The total available methanol in coastal areas increased by 46,100 tons to 293,400 tons [4]. - Market trends: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the price is below the moving average [4]. - Main positions: The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions [4]. - Price trends: From July 1 to July 7, the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 4.15%, the futures price increased by 0.34%, and the basis decreased by 113 [11]. - Production profit: Coal - based methanol profit decreased by 66 yuan/ton, natural gas - based methanol profit remained unchanged at - 120 yuan/ton, and coke oven gas - based methanol profit increased by 342 yuan/ton [21]. - Enterprise load: The national methanol load decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%, and the load in the northwest region decreased by 3.55% to 81.54% [22]. - External price and spread: The CFR price in China decreased by 1.07% to 277 US dollars/ton, the CFR price in Southeast Asia decreased by 2.84% to 341.5 US dollars/ton, and the spread decreased by 7 US dollars/ton [25]. - Import spread: The import cost decreased by 1.07% to 2447 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased by 1.82% to 2425 yuan/ton, and the import spread decreased by 79 yuan/ton [27]. - Traditional downstream products: The prices of formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid decreased by 0%, 1.24%, and 1.89% respectively; the production profit of formaldehyde remained at - 162 yuan/ton, the production profit of dimethyl ether decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the production profit of acetic acid decreased by 8 yuan/ton [31][35][38][42]. - MTO production: The production profit of MTO increased by 336 yuan/ton, and the load increased by 0.15% to 79.84% [47]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, and others in different regions such as the northwest, north, east, and southwest [57]. - Overseas plants: Some Iranian plants such as ZPC and Kimiaya are reported to be in the process of resuming production, while plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally [58]. - Olefin plants: Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have production adjustments, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy and Qinghai Kangjiu [59].