大越期货豆粕早报-20250708

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: The market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern. The price of US soybeans is affected by the weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations. In China, the increase in the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans and the weak spot price limit the upward space of the soybean meal price. The soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2900 and 2960 [8]. - Soybeans: The domestic soybean market is also in a range - bound state. The price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans, but is suppressed by the expected high yield of South American soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. The soybean A2509 is expected to fluctuate between 4020 and 4120 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Soybean Meal: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and it is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [8]. - Soybeans: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory is bearish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bearish, and it is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [10]. 3.2 Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is expected to fluctuate above the 1000 - point mark. The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories of domestic oil mills have rebounded. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are affected by the decline of US soybeans and are in a short - term downward trend. The profit of domestic pig farming has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the supply is tight, and the soybean meal market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas. Bearish factors include the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in June, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybeans: Bullish factors are the cost support of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans. Bearish factors are the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Basis: The spot price of soybean meal in East China is 2790, with a basis of - 147, indicating a discount to the futures. The spot price of soybeans is 4200, with a basis of 121, indicating a premium to the futures [8][10]. - Inventory: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 82.24 tons, a 18.91% increase from last week and a 34.32% decrease from the same period last year. The soybean inventory of oil mills is 636.4 tons, a 4.43% decrease from last week and an 11.28% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. - Supply and Demand: The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in June. The domestic pig farming profit has decreased, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. The supply of soybean meal is tight, and the market is in a short - term weak and volatile pattern [12]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main long positions have increased, and the funds have flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: The main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed in [10].