Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is currently characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,020 - 64,300 yuan/ton [8][11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include high and persistent supply from ore/salt lake sources with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to accept goods [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints - Supply Side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,123 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.43%, which is higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.92% [8]. - Demand Side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,660.56911 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3.75%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may decrease [8]. - Cost Side: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 61,715 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 0.08%, with a production profit of -28 yuan/ton, indicating a loss. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 66,522 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a production profit of -6,352 yuan/ton, also indicating a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with a higher profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - Basis: The basis of the 09 contract is -1,110 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [8]. - Inventory: The total inventory is 138,347 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.10%, which is higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters is 58,890 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.24%; the downstream inventory is 40,497 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.33%; and other inventory is 38,960 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.82% [8]. - Market: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The net short position of the main contract decreased [8]. - Expectation: The supply surplus will intensify, and the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,020 - 64,300 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Price and Basis: The prices of various lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 62,550 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 0.40%. The basis of the 09 contract was -1,110 yuan/ton [13]. - Supply - Side Data: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 61.8%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.59%. The monthly production was 78,090 tons, a month-on-month increase of 8.34%. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 39,450 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.31% [17]. - Demand - Side Data: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and ternary precursors showed different degrees of change. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 229,900 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.09% [17]. 3. Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of lithium ore has shown fluctuations over the years [22]. - Production: The production of domestic spodumene mines and lithium mica has shown different trends over the years [22]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has fluctuated, with the import volume from Australia showing an increasing trend [22]. - Self - Sufficiency Rate: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also shown fluctuations [22]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has changed over the years [22]. 4. Supply - Lithium Ore - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, production, import, and export of lithium ore showed different trends, resulting in corresponding balance changes [25]. 5. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) has shown different trends over the years [28]. - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources has changed over the years [28]. - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has fluctuated [28]. 6. Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, export, import, and production of lithium carbonate showed different trends, resulting in corresponding balance changes [33]. 7. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity Utilization Rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has shown different trends over the years [36]. - Operating Rate: The monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) has changed over the years [36]. - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources has shown different trends over the years [36]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide from China has increased over the years [36]. 8. Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, export, import, and production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends, resulting in corresponding balance changes [39]. 9. Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds (such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, etc.) have shown different trends over the years [42][43][44][45][46][47]. 10. Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide (monthly and weekly, by source) has shown different trends over the years [49]. 11. Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of lithium batteries has shown different trends over the years [53]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage) has changed over the years [53]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has increased over the years [53]. - Inventory: The inventory of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy storage) has shown different trends over the years [56]. 12. Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors has shown different trends over the years [59]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of ternary precursors have changed over the years [59]. - Capacity Utilization Rate: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has shown different trends over the years [59]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors has changed over the years [59]. 13. Demand - Ternary Precursor - Supply - Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2025, the demand, export, import, and production of ternary precursors showed different trends, resulting in corresponding balance changes [62]. 14. Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials has shown different trends over the years [65]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of ternary materials have changed over the years [65]. - Operating Rate: The weekly operating rate of ternary materials has shown different trends over the years [65]. - Production: The production of ternary materials has changed over the years [65]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials has shown different trends over the years [67]. 15. Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price: The price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has shown different trends over the years [69]. - Cost - Profit: The cost and profit of phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over the years [69]. - Operating Rate: The monthly operating rate of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has shown different trends over the years [69]. - Production: The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has changed over the years [72]. - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron lithium has shown different trends over the years [72]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory of phosphoric acid iron lithium has shown different trends over the years [74]. 16. Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) has increased over the years [77]. - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles has increased over the years [77]. - Sales: The sales of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid and pure - electric) have increased over the years [77]. - Penetration Rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased over the years [78]. - Retail - Wholesale Ratio: The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles monitored by the Passenger Car Association have shown different trends over the years [81]. - Inventory Index: The monthly inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have shown different trends over the years [81].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20250708
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-07-08 02:56