瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20250708

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 08 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03109641 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0018457 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - International supply is expected to be loose due to the improved prospects of major Asian sugar - producing countries with the arrival of the monsoon season and the year - on - year increase in Brazil's export volume, which suppresses raw sugar prices. In China, the price trends at home and abroad are diverging, the profit window for out - of - quota imports is open, and import pressure will be released, suppressing sugar prices. On the demand side, the summer consumption peak season brings certain support to prices. Overall, recent raw sugar fluctuations indirectly affect domestic sugar trends, but domestic demand is recovering and performing stronger than the external market. Later, both supply and demand will be strong, and price fluctuations will intensify. Attention should be paid to the arrival of imports and summer consumption [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; the main contract position is 294975 hands, down 1089 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 23092 sheets, down 312 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 38817 hands, down 2150 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 106 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The import processing estimated price (within quota) of Brazilian sugar is 4504 yuan/ton, up 186 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4545 yuan/ton, up 177 yuan. The import estimated price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5723 yuan/ton, up 243 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5777 yuan/ton, up 232 yuan. The spot prices of white sugar in Kunming, Nanning, and Liuzhou are 5865 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), 6020 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and 6120 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan) respectively [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the industrial inventory of sugar is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 350000 tons, up 220000 tons; Brazil's monthly sugar export volume is 225.66 million tons, up 70.4 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, down 0.9 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for sugar is 8.29%, down 0.01 percentage point; that of the at - the - money put option is 8.3%, down 0.01 percentage point. The 20 - day historical volatility is 7.38%, up 0.07 percentage point; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.83%, down 0.08 percentage point [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 3.359 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. As of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Brazil's cumulative sugar export volume was 7.1682 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.09% [2]